Severe Weather Team 9 meteorologist Jeff Oechslein's winter weather prediction:

Contrary to popular belief, our winter weather forecast is not based on almanacs or stripes on a woolly bear. It's actually based on ocean patterns.

This fall, we have experienced a renewed cooling of waters in the equatorial pacific. This is called La Nina, and it's predicted to linger into spring. Besides La Nina, my forecast was based on other sections of the globe. There are cooler than average ocean temperatures along the western coast of the United States all the way northward into Alaska. In the Atlantic Ocean, water temperatures in the North Atlantic are warmer than average.

Putting together a long-term forecast is like collecting evidence at a crime scene except I'm trying to predict the future rather than the past. You see these patterns have all happened in the past and it gives me an idea on how they will affect temperature and weather across the United States. It's the weather version of "CSI."

A typical La Nina winter keeps much below normal temperatures bottled up across the northern half of the United States, while warmer than average temperatures persist across the southern half. Locally, I expect it to get cold toward Thanksgiving after a mild start to November. The coldest months of winter relative to average should be December into January. Then I expect slightly warmer than average temperatures for February and March. The wild card this winter in temperature forecasts is the Northern Atlantic Oscillation. When the NAO is negative, it sends arctic air southward into the Eastern United States. Unfortunately predicting the NAO index outside of a week to week basis is difficult to say the least. But given the conditions I explained above I expect a cold start to winter to slowly ease by the second half of the season.

What about precipitation? Above normal precipitation is typically found in the Ohio Valley and northern half of the country. Notice where it tends to be drier than average, across the southern half of the United States. This is not good news for drought stricken areas such as Texas. This calendar year has been well above average in terms of precipitation and with this trend expected to continue this could spell a heightened flood threat for the Ohio Valley, especially during periods in which we experience a thaw. While I am confident that this winter will feature above average precipitation, I'm not so confident that this winter will be an extra snowy one. Remember, above average precipitation doesn't always translate to above average snow.

Here is my best shot at predicting snowfall month by month. November will feature below average snowfall with a forecast of 2 inches, slightly below the average of 3.1 inches. Keep in mind much of the month will feature above average temperatures, so if we see much snow fly at all it would be late in the month toward or after Thanksgiving.
In December I am going with a forecast of 11 inches of snow, above the average of 6.9 inches. Colder than average temperatures and above average snowfall should boost our chances of a White Christmas, the one day out of the year that most of us actually want snow!

The snow shovel should get a work out in January, with a forecast of 17 inches of snow which is above the average of 12.3 inches. The month may not be all white as I expect a January thaw towards the middle to latter stages.
The groundhog emerges out of his burrow to give us his prognostication come February, how does he get to wait until February and I have to deliver the forecast in November, no fair! I expect above average snowfall for the month with large fluctuations in temperatures. The milder air returning north may result in more mixed storms for the region.
The winter may go out like a lamb as below average snowfall is predicted come March, but keep in mind we still may see a few flakes fly in early April.

If you add it all up, my forecast calls for 47 inches of snow this winter, which is about 6 and a half inches what an average winter would yield, if there is such a thing. As always, take a long-term forecast like this with a grain of salt and remember the purpose of a seasonal forecast is not to focus on daily weather conditions. Instead focus on trends in temperature and precipitation.