JANUARY 31, 2009: A SNOWY JANUARY

If this past week was any indication, January 2009 was a very snowy month in the Ohio Valley. We received 18.4 inches of snow this month, about 6 inches more than normal. In fact, yesterday we set a new all-time record for that date with 2.8 inches of snow. The previous record was 2.3 inches set back in 1945.

This was also the most snow we have seen in the month of January in 13 years! Back in 1996, we had a very active month with nearly 27 inches of snowfall.

For the 2008-2009 winter season so far, we have received 26.6 inches of snow (about 4 inches above average). Hopefully, the weather will calm down a little bit for February - but don't bet on that using the last few years. February took home the honors of "snowiest month" in the past 4 winters!

Email your weather questions to weather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Mike Skurko.

JANUARY 30, 2009: BONUS SNOW

That’s what I call it, anyway; snow above and beyond what is expected. And that’s what a cold front delivered on this Friday. I measured 2.8 inches of snow, which was melted down to 0.12 inches of liquid precipitation at the Filtration Plant in Steubenville, our official keeper of the rain gauge. This translates to a ratio of 23.3 inches of snow for an inch of rain, which shows it was a very dry and fluffy snow, as would be expected with temperatures in the upper teens to middle twenties during the snowfall.

I thought this cold front would only bring at most a tenth of an inch of liquid precipitation, and that the snow to liquid ratio would be about 20 to 1, so I thought we’d top out at about 2 inches of snow. But we got a little more liquid than expected, and the snow was a bit drier and fluffier than expected; in fact, some parts of the Ohio Valley reported four inches or more of snow.

We shouldn’t see this much precipitation over the weekend, but flurries will continue into Saturday, and then some light snow mixed with ice is possible Saturday night into Sunday as a warm front passes by to our north. A trailing cold front brings a few snow and rain showers late Sunday, ending up as all snow Sunday night as the colder air moves back in.

This leads us to the big question of . . . what about that possible big storm? The computer models changed their tunes with Friday’s model runs, with just about all of them coming in with a much weaker storm much farther east. It is worth noting that the actual storm still had not reached the northwest shore of the United States as of Friday evening, so there can still be considerable changes to the model projections as we go through the weekend. But based solely on what the models are saying now, the chances for a flooding rain storm or a major ice storm are very small, and even the chance for a big snow storm or blizzard for the Ohio Valley are greatly reduced.

E-mail your weather questions to weather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Kevin Carter .

JANUARY 29, 2009: A COUPLE OF SMALL ITEMS BEFORE PERHAPS SOMETHING BIGGER

If you are at all into weather, then you probably have heard some rumblings of a potential big storm hitting somewhere in the eastern United States and Canada Monday through Wednesday. It’s way too early to be nailing now the specifics of that storm, but I will do some generalizations in a bit. But first, there are a couple of smaller systems to attend to.

First up is a cold front which should move through our area Friday. Light snow will fall ahead of and along this front, giving us a fluffy inch or two of snow which will blow and drift around the area. This will help keep area roadways slippery, since we still have a lot of snow and ice from the previous storm.

Our next precipitation maker will likely be a warm front skirting the area late Saturday into early Sunday. This will help us warm up from the 20’s on Saturday to the 40’s on Sunday, but the price we pay will be a little snow developing Saturday afternoon or evening. This light snow will continue Saturday night, perhaps mixing with a little sleet or freezing rain before ending early Sunday morning. Any snow accumulations from this should again be on the order of two inches or less.

So, if we warm up into the low 40’s on Sunday, how can I be worried about a snow storm Monday night into Tuesday? The answer is a cold front which is expected to move through our area on Monday, bringing some snow and rain showers with it. Most of the computer models show a low pressure system on the southern end of this cold front down by the Gulf of Mexico on Monday morning. The cold front should move east of us by Monday evening, while the low strengthens and moves north and east.

Depending on where the cold front and the low end up, and how strong the low gets, we could have a little or a whole lot of precipitation. It seems almost certain that the precipitation starts as a snow, rain, and maybe ice mix (especially Monday as the cold front moves in and through), but if the storm stays a little east of us and the cold air can get locked in here, we would end up with a major snow storm or even a blizzard Monday night through Tuesday into Wednesday morning. But the storm could head so far east that the heavy precipitation misses us, and it’s even possible that the storm tracks farther west and moves right over us, giving us less snow, more ice, and perhaps even flooding rains. Stay tuned!

E-mail your weather questions to weather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Kevin Carter .

JANUARY 28, 2009: STORM SUMMARY

The major winter storm which tracked right through the area Wednesday morning is now heading away, leaving a lot of snow and ice for Ohio Valley residents to contend with. This system began to impact the area early Tuesday morning, with snowfall amounts of less than an inch north to around four inches south. After a bit of a break Tuesday afternoon, the real fun began Tuesday evening.

Unfortunately for snow lovers, milder air aloft moved in quickly from the south Tuesday evening, producing more freezing rain than snow for most of the area. Still, many areas had an inch or two of snow and sleet before the icy rains took over. Freezing rain pounded the region Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, with many areas reporting ice at least a half inch thick.

Temperatures warmed up just above freezing at ground level for some of us Wednesday morning as the area of low pressure moved right over us, changing the precipitation to a chilly but non-freezing rain. But as the low moved away, colder air swept in and turned all the precipitation back to snow, with another inch or two accumulating before the snow moved out.

Here at the station, our storm totals were four inches of snow (an inch Tuesday morning, another inch Tuesday evening, and two inches Wednesday afternoon) and a half inch of ice. The most snow reported by the National Weather Service for our area was in West Chester in Tuscarawas County with 9.5 inches. We could pick up an inch or so of snow Thursday night into Friday, and perhaps some light mixed precipitation Saturday night, but I don’t see another chance at a bigger storm until perhaps late Monday into Tuesday.

E-mail your weather questions to weather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Kevin Carter .

JANUARY 26, 2009: ANOTHER COMPLEX FORECAST

Our brief thaw last Thursday and Friday seems a distant memory already, after another cold weekend with a fresh whitening of snow. And yet another shot or two of precipitation seems poised to hit us over the next couple of days, a minor one later on this Monday night and early Tuesday, and perhaps more substantial snow and ice ( and even rain) Tuesday night into Wednesday.

The first batch of precipitation should be all snow, and there should not be much, with less than a tenth of an inch of liquid precipitation expected by most of the computer models. With temperatures near 20 degrees, this should keep our snow amounts under two inches as the first batch of milder and moister air aloft floats over the cold, dry air we have in place.

After a bit of a break Tuesday afternoon, more snow is expected to develop by Tuesday evening as a low pressure system takes shape and moves towards the Ohio Valley. This storm is currently expected to bring a half inch to an inch of liquid precipitation with it, along with milder air both aloft in the clouds and here at the ground where we live. This could change later, but for now I think we’ll see something like one to four inches of snow the first part of Tuesday night, then some sleet and freezing rain later on Tuesday night, and finally all rain for a while Wednesday morning, as we warm up into the middle 30’s. As the center of the low pressure system heads away to the northeast, we go back to all snow, with perhaps another inch or two as temperatures fall back into and through the 20’s Wednesday afternoon.

Again, this can and probably will change as we go through time, but right now we could see as much as eight inches of snow falling over parts of the Ohio Valley between Monday evening and Wednesday evening, although the actual amount of snow on the ground will be less because of the ice and rain that falls on the snow, melting some of it and packing it down as well.

E-mail your weather questions to weather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Kevin Carter .

JANUARY 24, 2009: THE OFFICE - DWIGHT'S CLOUD ANALYSIS

While watching one of my favorite TV shows, The Office , on Thursday night, I couldn't help but comment on the weather exchange from the last episode. While sitting in a car waiting to take down another business, Michael Scott and Dwight Schrute had this funny little scene:

Michael: There's clouds in the sky. I think it's gonna rain. Bad for business.
Dwight: Well it would if they were altocumulus, not cirrostratus.
Michael: Why do you? - ah ok.
Dwight: Get your clouds right.
Michael: Shut up.

Dwight was right…cirrostratus clouds do not produce rain. Cirrostratus clouds are very thin and wispy-looking. They usually form a wiry, almost transparent sheet high in the sky (typically above 20,000 feet). It can be hard to distinguish one cirrostratus cloud from another. They appear this way due to a sparse amount of moisture that high in the atmosphere. While cirrostratus clouds by themselves do not produce precipitation, an abundance of cirrostratus clouds can signify an approaching warm front.

Altocumulus can be broken down into two parts… "alto" and "cumulus". Alto means "middle," which refers to their position in the sky. Altocumulus clouds are lower than cirrostratus, typically flying in around 10,000 feet. This is considered by meteorologists as the middle part of the atmosphere. "Cumulus" means that these clouds appear puffy, with altocumulus usually looking slightly gray and covering the sky like wavy rolls or bumps. They also develop due to a process called convection.

Convection is a process that is key in developing thunderstorms, so the presence of altocumulus clouds on a warm, summer morning is usually a dead giveaway that thunderstorms will develop later that afternoon. They are often seen before the passage of a cold front, which also typically produces thunderstorms in the summer.

Email your weather questions to weather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Mike Skurko.

JANUARY 23, 2009: JANUARY THAW

It was brief, but for many of us it was welcome and much needed. Temperatures rose above freezing Thursday and Friday, reaching 38 degrees on Thursday, and touching 50 degrees on Friday. We were nowhere near the record highs for the dates (72 degrees in 1999 for January 22, and 64 degrees in 1967 for January 23), but at least we were mild enough to melt a lot of that snow and ice off the driveways and sidewalks.

That 50 degree high temperature on Friday was our warmest day of the year so far, and was our warmest day in over three weeks. Last January we did not have to wait long for our first 50 degree day; it came on January 6, when we hit 55 degrees. The next three days were all in the 60’s, including record highs of 66 on January 7 and 69 on January 8 last year.

Two milder than average days probably don’t really qualify as a thaw, but it was a change from all the cold weather we have experienced lately. Temporary warm ups in January happen often enough that they are reflected in our average temperatures. Our coldest average high is 34 degrees and the coldest average low is 18 degrees. These occur from January 9 through January 16. The average high then goes up to 36 degrees and the average low to 19 degrees from January 21 through January 27. While the average low stays at 19 degrees, the average high drops back to 35 degrees on January 28, and stays there until February 6. Then both the average high and low start to head back up, so that by the end of February, the average high is 44 degrees and the average low is 25 degrees. By then, spring will be just around the corner!

E-mail your weather questions to weather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Kevin Carter .

JANUARY 22, 2009: A SUNNY THURSDAY

I hope you enjoyed the sunshine we had on this Thursday, because these sunny days can be hard to find in our neck of the woods this time of year. Despite all that snow on the ground, we managed to warm up into the upper 30’s, which felt pretty nice after all of our recent cold temperatures. It was a good day to knock some of that ice and snow off of your driveway.

The sunshine was courtesy of a large area of high pressure which was centered over Florida. The Sunshine State had plenty of sunshine today, but the clear skies, light winds, and dry air produced some very un-Florida-like temperatures early Thursday morning. Tallahassee checked in with a morning low of 18 degrees, and it was 29 degrees in Orlando. Tampa fell to 34 degrees, and even Miami shivered at 42 degrees this morning.

Fruit and vegetable farmers had to work through the night in Florida to minimize the damage to their crops. Many employ sprinklers to mist water onto the crops, allowing the water to freeze. While this might seem to be a strange thing to do, liquid water contains more energy than the solid form of water known as ice. So, when the water freezes into ice, energy is released as heat, which is absorbed by the plants. By keeping this process going through the night, the damage caused by the sub-freezing temperatures can be lessened.

E-mail your weather questions to weather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Kevin Carter .

JANUARY 21, 2009: A LOOK AT THE BIGGER PICTURE

Your Severe Weather Team 9 Weather Blog has already examined (back on December 31, 2008) our overall weather stats for 2008 . . . a year that came in a bit cooler than average, a bit less snowy than average, and certainly much wetter than average. Let’s see how 2008 fits in with the past few years.

Last year was our first cooler than average year since 2003, when we were just under a degree cooler than average. The past three years have all been at least a degree warmer than average, while 2004 was only slightly warmer than average.

Last year continued a streak of below average snowfall, now at three years and counting. While last year was close to average snowfall-wise, we had only 7.5 inches of snow in 2006, more than three feet below average! Our last snowier than average year was 2005, when we exceeded the average snowfall by more than five inches.

When it comes to total precipitation, however, wet is the rule lately. 2008 was our sixth straight year with precipitation at least five inches above average, and you have to go back to 2001 to find a drier than average year. The champion precipitation year was 2004, when we set an annual record with 60.28 inches of precipitation, almost two feet above average. The rain from the tropical systems Frances and Ivan in September of that year added nearly ten inches to that total. If this wet weather keeps up, our precipitation average will surely be heading up next time it is calculated.

E-mail your weather questions to weather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Kevin Carter .

JANUARY 20, 2009: DAYS GETTING LONGER

Back on the winter solstice on December 21, we had only 9 hours and 17 minutes of daylight, our shortest day of the year in terms of daylight (sunrise 7:43 am, sunset 5:00 pm). Today, just about one month later, we had 28 more minutes of daylight to play with (sunrise 7:42 am, sunset 5:27 pm). It is interesting to note that today’s sunrise was only one minute earlier than it was on December 21, while today’s sunset was 27 minutes later.

It turns out that our latest sunrise and earliest sunset do not fall on the winter solstice. In fact, they don’t even fall on the same date. Our earliest sunset (4:56 pm) comes on December 8, well before the solstice, while our latest sunrise (7:47 am) happens well after the solstice on January 4.

This happens because of two things: the tilt of the earth on its axis as it orbits the sun, and the elliptical orbit of the earth around the sun. These factors essentially cause the sun and our clocks to get out of sync. The same thing happens at the summer solstice, so that the earliest sunrise comes before the solstice (which is our longest day of the year in terms of daylight), and the latest sunset comes after the solstice.

E-mail your weather questions toweather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Kevin Carter .

JANUARY 19, 2009: EXTREME INAUGRATION DAY WEATHER

Most Dramatic and Tragic - 1841: President William Henry Harrison was sworn into office on a cloudy, cold and blustery day. His speech lasted one hour and 40 minutes and he rode a horse to and from the Capitol without a hat or overcoat. Pneumonia developed from a lingering cold he caught on that day and he died just one month later.

Almost as bad - 1853: President Franklin Pierce was sworn into office on another cold and snowy day. He awoke to heavy snow in the morning which continued until about 11:30 am. Skies looked to be brightening by noon. Shortly after Pierce took his oath of office, as he began his inaugural address, snow started again. It came down heavier than ever dispersing much of the crowd and ruining plans for the parade. Abigail Fillmore, First Lady to the outgoing President Millard Fillmore, caught a cold as she sat on the cold, wet, exposed platform during the swearing-in ceremony. The cold developed into pneumonia and she died at the end of the month.

Worst Weather Day - 1909: President William H. Taft's ceremony was forced indoors due to a storm that dropped 10 inches of snow over the Capital city. The snow and winds began the day before. Strong winds toppled trees and telephone poles. Trains were stalled and city streets clogged. All activity was brought to a standstill. Sanitation workers shoveled sand and snow through half the night. It took 6,000 men and 500 wagons to clear 58,000 tons of snow and slush from the parade route. See pictures. Despite the freezing temperatures, howling wind, snow, and sleet, a large crowd gathered in front of the Capitol to view the inauguration, but the weather forced the ceremony indoors. Just after the swearing-in, the snow tapered off.

Wash Out - 1937: President Franklin Delano Roosevelt's second inauguration. It was the first time the inauguration was held on January 20th. Two hundred thousand visitors came to Washington for the inauguration, though several thousand never got farther than Union Station. It was a cold rainy day. Some sleet and freezing rain was reported in the morning. Between 11 am and 1 pm, 0.69 inches of rain fell. The ceremony began at 12:23 pm. The noon temperature was 33°F. At the president's insistence, he rode back to the White House in an open car with a half an inch of water on the floor. Later, he stood for an hour and a half in an exposed viewing stand watching the inaugural parade splash by in the deluge. Total rainfall for the day was a wet 1.77 inches and this amount remains as the record rainfall for January 20th.

Warmest Inaugurations: (Official weather records began in 1871) Warmest January 20th Traditional Date: 1981 - Ronald Reagan - 55°F under mostly cloudy skies.

Warmest March 4th Traditional Date: Official record: 1913 - Woodrow Wilson - 55°F under overcast skies in Washington, DC. Unofficial: 1793 - George Washington - estimated 61°F in Philadelphia, PA. Warmest Non-traditional Dates: August 9, 1974 - Gerald Ford - 89°F with partly cloudy and hazy skies.

Coldest Inaugurations:

Coldest January Date (and overall): 1985 - President Ronald Reagan's second swearing-in ceremony on January 21 had to be held indoors and the parade was canceled. The outside temperature at noon was only 7°F. The morning low was 4° below zero and the daytime high was only 17°. Wind chill temperatures during the afternoon were in the -10 to -20°F range.

Coldest March Date: 1873 - Ulysses S. Grant's second swearing-in ceremony - The morning low temperature of 4°F was a record for the month of March. The day remains the coldest March day on record. During the day, bitterly cold winds gusted up to 40 mph. By noon, the temperature had risen to 16°F. Wind chill temperatures were -15° to -30°F. Cadets and midshipmen had been standing on the mall for more than an hour and a half without overcoats. Several of them collapsed. When the president delivered his inaugural address, the wind made his words inaudible to even those on the platform with him. The inaugural ball was held in a temporary building without heat. It had to be halted at midnight so people, who had been dancing in their overcoats and heavy wraps, could go home and get warm.

Email your weather questions toweather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Jeff Oechslein.

JANUARY 18, 2009: INAUGURATION WEATHER

A weakening low pressure system will be racing through Virginia and the Washington DC area Monday afternoon. This storm has the capability of producing up to an inch of snow on Monday. Travelers up and down the Mid-Atlantic should be aware of some snow on the roadways if heading to the Capitol on Monday.

For Inauguration Day on Tuesday, some sun will try to break through, but overall it will be cold and mostly cloudy. High temperatures are expected to be in the low-30s (Washington DC's average high for this day is 42 degrees), but wind chills will be in the upper-teens at noon when President-Elect Obama gets sworn into office.

Email your weather questions to weather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Mike Skurko.

JANUARY 16, 2009: RECAPPING THE COLD

It was bitterly cold this morning all across the region. Our official low came in at -8° in the Ohio Valley. Here is a look at some other official observations of minimum temperatures across the tri-state area:

Wheeling, WV: -8°
Pittsburgh, PA: -8°
Butler, PA: -8°
Beaver Falls, PA: -9°
Zanesville, OH: -9°
New Philadelphia, OH: -11°
Mansfield, OH: -13°
Cleveland, OH: -13°
Columbus, OH: -14°

We also got flooded with emails from local residents that had readings of double-digits below zero from their thermometers at home. Many homes in rural areas and higher elevations would have very easily been a few degrees colder than those official numbers in the Ohio Valley. The coldest we got word of was -18° from a hilltop just outside of Byesville, OH in Guernsey County!

Email your weather questions to weather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Mike Skurko.

JANUARY 15, 2009: COLDEST NIGHT IN 15 YEARS!

With bitterly cold air putting a deep-freeze on this entire part of the country, we could be facing our coldest night in the Ohio Valley in exactly 15 years! Below are some of the coldest low temperatures dating back to 1994:

Feb 6, 2007: -4°
Jan 27, 2003: -4°
Feb 4, 1996: -5°
Jan 15, 1994: -4°
Jan 16, 1994: -9°
Jan 18, 1994: -16°
Jan 19, 1994: -22° *Tied All-Time Record*
Jan 20, 1994: -6°
Jan 21, 1994: -13°

Over the last 15 years, the thermometer had dropped below zero 21 times. It would be safe to say that we are due for a night or two with sub-zero temperatures every year. Hopefully, this will be the only time we'll see these sub-zero temperatures for the remainder of the winter! Stay Warm!

Email your weather questions to weather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Mike Skurko.

JANUARY 14, 2009: THE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO

So what is this snow ratio you ask? It’s a ratio that lets you know the amount of snow that would add up if one inch of liquid fell from the sky. In other words, a 10:1 ratio means that for every 1 inch of rain there would be 10 inches of snow. This ratio changes drastically in relation to the temperatures of the air through which the snow is falling. The colder the air, the drier, lighter, and more fluffy the snow thus that’s why you see the higher ratio. The closer it is to 32, the wetter the snow, & the lower the ratio.

I bring this up because we are expecting snow this afternoon and tonight. The computer models are printing out close to .15 inches of liquid. Given a normal 10:1 ratio we would expect about 1.5 inches of snow. But our snow will be falling at temperatures in the teens which is more conducive to a 20:1 ratio, meaning for every 1 inch of liquid there would be 20 inches of snow. Since we are expecting .15 inches of liquid I have upped the snow total closer to 3 inches.

This is part of what makes forecasting snow so difficult. If we receive more or less than what the models are suggesting then the snowfall could be higher or lower. Coming up with the correct ratio isn’t the easiest thing to do either. There’s certainly an art to it and this is why you’ll almost always see a few inch range given when forecasting any significant snowfall.

Help Severe Weather Team 9 track the snow amounts by sending us your name, location, and snow amount toweather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Jeff Oechslein.

JANUARY 13, 2009: WHEN WILL PIPES FREEZE?

Although it may seem that pipes would freeze in the Ohio Valley quite often, we can take a sigh of relief. In the northern U.S., our buildings and homes are well-insulated as the temperature frequently goes below freezing during the winter. As a result, builders typically will place pipes in insulated areas where freezing will not likely occur.

In a survey conducted at the University of Illinois, uninsulated and/or unprotected pipes will start to freeze when the outside temperature falls to 20 degrees. While this is well below the freezing point of water, the study points out that there are two important things to consider:

1) The temperature inside an unheated part of a building will still be a few degrees warmer than the outside air temperature.
2) Water has a unique property of "supercooling"...its temperature can be a few degrees below freezing before ice actually begins to form.

Pipes can still freeze at temperatures above 20 degrees if they are directly exposed to flowing, cold air. Again though, most homes in the northern U.S. typically do not have a problem with exposed pipes. Builders usually will not forget about freezing and therefore will not place pipes in cold-vulnerable areas. Frozen pipes are more of a concern in the southern U.S. where freezing does not typically occur, and uninsulted pipes can easily be overlooked.

Email your weather questions to weather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Mike Skurko.

JANUARY 12, 2009: LETTING THE FAUCET DRIP

With a widespread cold outbreak later this week, the concern of frozen pipes comes to attention. Perhaps the most well-known quick remedy for preventing pipes from freezing overnight is to the let the faucet drip. The common belief is that allowing the faucet to drip will keep water running through the pipes, not allowing ice to build up. Actually, water can (and eventually will) freeze if the temperature is low enough…regardless if water is flowing or not. However, ice alone does not typically cause a pipe to burst.

Surprisingly, most pipes burst due to a huge pressure build-up between an ice blockage and the faucet. Letting the water drip will greatly relieve this pressure. As a result, this typically prevents the pipe from bursting, regardless if ice forms inside the pipe or not. Even if the faucet stops dripping due to an ice blockage, keeping the faucet open will still provide pressure relief and reduce the chance of the pipe bursting.

Email your weather questions to weather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Mike Skurko.

JANUARY 11, 2009: FROST VERSUS FROZEN DEW

Very close, but they're not quite the same thing. Dew forms whenever the air near the surface becomes fully saturated. This is indicated by the temperature and the dew point. If they are equal, dew will form. Frost is essentially dew that forms in environments when the dew point is below the freezing mark of 32 degrees (at which point it is also called the "frost point"). Frost has a tendency to look like crystal structures resembling a light snowfall.

Frozen dew occurs when dew has already formed, and then the temperature drops below freezing. For example, if the temperature and the dew point are both at 35 degrees, dew will likely form. If the temperature and the dew point continue to drop to 30 degrees, then the dew will freeze over. Frozen dew is harder to see, as it resembles more of a thin, clear coating of ice. Either way, forecasts calling for frost or frozen dew will require you to take a couple extra minutes to warm up your car and scrape off your windshield before heading out!

Email your weather questions to weather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Mike Skurko.

JANUARY 10, 2009: DODGING A BULLET

Luckily for most of us, we dodged a bullet regarding this weekend's winter storm. The significant snowfall associated with this storm missed us to the north. In fact, right here in the Ohio Valley seemed to be the cutoff point for the heaviest snow. Many places north of us, closer to the Interstate 80 corridor (about halfway between the Ohio Valley and Lake Erie) saw at least several inches of snow.

The position and track of an area of low pressure was crucial for who would see the most snow. The night before the strength of the storm (Friday night), the low moved further north than previously expected. This put us closer to the center of the low, and supplied us with access to above-freezing temperatures. The amount of rain, freezing rain, and sleet that resulted put an end to the potential for excessive snowfall.

The most snowfall that was reported in our viewing area was 7.0 inches in northern Columbiana County. However, snowfall quickly decreased as you traveled south. In fact, Wellsville in southern Columbiana County only reported 3.0 inches of snowfall. Jefferson County only had about 1-2 inches. In general, most places north of Interstate 70 saw at least an inch of snow, with some sleet and freezing rain. South of Interstate 70 saw more rain and freezing rain than snow. Still, this was by far our biggest storm of the winter season thus far…and we still have two more months of winter to go.

Email your weather questions to weather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Mike Skurko.

JANUARY 8, 2009: FINALLY, A BIG SNOW?

Hey snow lovers! After a rather quiet start to the winter season, things are beginning to look up as far as accumulating snow goes. Here at the station, we’ve only had about 9 inches of snow so far this season, about 4 inches below average. There is a chance we will catch up to normal soon, maybe real soon. An Alberta Clipper type storm is expected to drop pretty far to the south, moving over northern Missouri Friday afternoon, and then move right over the Ohio Valley on Saturday. Typically Alberta Clippers give us small snow accumulations, but the various computer models we use in the Severe Weather Center are pointing towards a rather robust storm, with perhaps an inch or more of liquid precipitation from this storm, falling mostly as snow, with some ice or rain mixed in. An inch of rain can translate to 10 inches of snow, so we have to be on guard for our heaviest snow of the season by far. But it’s still early in the forecasting game on this one, with new batches of computer model data rolling in overnight and again during the day tomorrow. I’ll update my forecast this evening as the new data comes in, Jeff will have a fresh look at things Friday morning, and I’ll put the finishing touches on the Severe Weather Team 9 forecast Friday evening, all before the serious flakes begin to fly. Stay tuned! E-mail your weather questions toweather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Kevin Carter .

JANUARY 7, 2009: POLAR AIRMASS AWAITS

Bundle up! By this time next week we could be seeing our coldest air of the season. We’re talking temperatures in the single-digits with wind chills below zero! A shift in the jet stream…the main boundary between cold and warm air on a large scale…will allow a deep pocket of air to move down from the polar regions of Canada. While we still have a ways to a go, some early computer guidance is suggesting some near-record low temperatures possible across the northern Great Plains and Northeastern U.S. That may include us Tuesday night as our record low is -1 degree.

Email your weather questions to weather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Mike Skurko.

JANUARY 6, 2009: WHY FREEZING RAIN AND NOT SNOW?

These are the type of days that I often get asked this question. “Why is it raining outside if the thermometer says its below 32 degrees?”

In parts of the storm, especially in the areas ahead of a warm front, warm air is flowing over cold air near the ground. The result is a warm air sandwich, in which a wedge of air that's above 32°F is positioned between a layer of colder air near the ground and a layer of colder air higher up.

Precipitation that begins as snow in the higher level of colder air melts into rain in the wedge of air that's above the melting point of ice (32°F).

In places where the warmer air extends all the way to the ground, the precipitation falls as rain. If the layer of cold air near the ground is relatively thin and if the ground is below 32°F, the falling rain cools below 32°F but doesn't turn into ice until it hits something — this is freezing rain.

When the layer of cold air is thick enough, the falling rain freezes into ice pellets, which are also called sleet. In places where there's no wedge of warm air, the snow falls all of the way to the ground as snow. Often, rain, freezing rain, sleet and snow fall on the same places as a storm moves by.

Email your weather questions toweather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Jeff Oechslein.

JANUARY 5, 2009: FRIGID IN ALASKA, GETTING COLD HERE LATER THIS WEEK

The cold weather that developed over a week ago over Alaska's interior will likely continue for much of this week. While temperatures will likely fall shy of setting records, temperatures in the interior valleys are expected to be mainly in the 35 to 55 below zero range and as cold as 60 to 65 below zero at times on the Yukon Flats.

Meanwhile back home on the ranch temperatures are expected to cool down this week. The second half of the week should turn out colder than the first half. The early outlook for Sunday is much colder. Temperatures may be dropping into the teens for the Steelers and Chargers game at Heinz Field. Cold weather and San Diego coming to town spells advantage Steelers!

Email your weather questions toweather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Jeff Oechslein.

JANUARY 4, 2009: EARTH REACHES PERIHELION

While the earth orbits around the sun, the path it takes is not an exact circle. It’s elliptical, or oval-shaped. That means there are two ends to the orbit…a point where it is furthest from the sun (known as aphelion) and a point where it’s closest to the sun (known as perihelion). Today the earth reached perihelion at 10AM. At this time the earth was about 91.4 million miles away from the sun…the closest it ever gets. Aphelion, the furthest point, is about 94.5 million miles away.

Even though the earth is closest to the sun now, it does not have a great impact on the amount of solar radiation the earth receives. There is only a 6.9% difference in solar energy between perihelion and aphelion. The tilt of the earth has the greater influence on how much solar energy each hemisphere receives (and ultimately has the biggest impact on producing the seasons).

Right now, the Southern Hemisphere is tilted towards the sun, which is why it is summer there and winter here. Since the Southern Hemisphere is always tilted towards the sun at perihelion, the Southern Hemisphere always receives slightly more radiation than the Northern Hemisphere over the course of a year.

Email your weather questions to weather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Mike Skurko.

JANUARY 3, 2009: WHEN IS OUR FIRST MAJOR SNOW?

Whenever snow appears on the forecast, it usually turns out to be some scattered snow showers or some lake-effect flurries. Now that we’ve rolled the calendar over to 2009 and winter is officially in full-swing, many people are waiting for when snow shows up on the forecast as “The Big One.” You know, the big storm that cancels school for an entire week as we shovel ourselves out of a foot of snow. So in 2009, which upcoming month will give us the day with the most snowfall? Get your scorecards ready…

Those storms are pretty few and far between, and predicting exactly when in the year they occur is nearly impossible. The simplest statistic would point to the year’s biggest snow occurring this month, as we average more snow in the month of January (12.3 inches) than any other month. One point for January!!!

However, looking at year’s past would point to the contrary. Over the last 6 winters, each season’s biggest snowfall in one day never occurred in January…it usually occurred in February. One point for February!!!

In each of the last 3 winters before that, however, the largest snowfall did occur in January. Another point for January!!!

Also looking at Jeff’s Winter Weather Forecast (see November 24th blog entry), we are in a neutral winter regarding El Nino/La Nina. That has pointed us to more than average snowfall in the Ohio Valley the last few times we were in a neutral pattern. In the last 4 “neutral” winters, the largest snowfall in one day occurred twice in December and twice in January. Half-point for December, half-point for January!!!

Tallying them up…January: 2 ½ points, February: 1 point, December: ½ point…it appears that the past decade or so would slightly point towards January. No big snowstorms are in the forecast yet, but we usually get a pretty good sense a few days early of when a storm will become “The Big One” for the year. Stay tuned!!!

Email your weather questions to weather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Mike Skurko.