FEBRUARY 24, 2009: POTHOLE SEASON!

Are you wondering how that pothole appeared on your street? This time of year, when rain or snow seeps through cracks in a roadway, moisture reaches the soil below. That water freezes as temperatures drop, causing the ground to expand, which pushes the pavement up. When temperatures rise again during the day, the ground contracts, leaving a gap between the pavement and the soil as the water melts. Potholes form when vehicles drive over the area where the gap exists – the pavement cracks and drops into the hollow area below.

You might say we hit a pothole this morning with temperatures bottoming out in the single digits! Check out the list of morning low temperatures:

COSTONIA 1
BYESVILLE 3

NEW PHILADELPHIA 5

STEUBENVILLE 7

WHEELING 8

Email your weather questions toweather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Jeff Oechslein.

FEBRUARY 23, 2009: HOW MUCH SNOW HAVE YOU HAD?

I don’t know about your particular yard, but here at Severe Weather Team 9, we’ve measured 30.3 inches of snow so far this season. That’s a bit above average, but only by 0.7 inches. Our February total is actually a bit below normal, coming in at 3.7 inches compared to the average of 6.9 inches of the first 23 days of the month.

Snowfall amounts can vary by a lot over a short distance, especially in our area due to the hit and miss nature of the snow showers that are so common during the winter months. It also helps if the snow can be measured every hour like they do at National Weather Service offices, but which we can’t quite do here.

So it should come as no real surprise that the area National Weather Service offices have measured more snow than we have, but the amount more might surprise you. Pittsburgh has picked up 39.5 inches so far this season, about ten inches above normal. This includes 7.1 inches so far this month.

There have been a few storms this season that have dumped heavy snows just to our north. Also, the lake effect snow showers are usually more concentrated north of here. The snow totals for the Canton-Akron, Youngstown, and Cleveland airports all reflect these trends. Canton-Akron checks in with 52.5 inches of snow, nearly a foot and a half above average. Cleveland has an impressive 75.5 inches of snow, more than two feet more than normal. But the champ this season so far is Youngstown, with 82.6 inches of snow, more than forty inches above average. That’s a lot of shoveling!

E-mail your weather questions to weather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Kevin Carter .

FEBRUARY 18, 2009: SIGNS OF SPRING BUT PLENTY OF WINTER REMAINS

Folks keep on asking me how much longer to Spring? The quick answer is about 30 days, at least that’s when the Vernal Equinox occurs. Spring begins March 20th at 7:44 am. If you look closely though you will see signs that spring is near.

The day length is getting longer. Just yesterday the sun sat below the western horizon at 6 pm in the evening. The length of daylight yesterday was 10 hours and 46 minutes. We have gained nearly an hour and a half of daylight since December 21st. One month from now the length of daylight will increase to 12 hours. That makes sense as equinox means equal day and equal night.

Our average high and low temperatures are beginning to get higher and higher by the day. The average high is now up to 40 degrees while the average low stands at 22 degrees. One month from now the average high will climb to 52 degrees and the average low goes to 30 degrees.

Then there are the robin sightings that coming into the weather center. Robins to many are a symbol of winter’s end. The first appearance of a robin is a sure sign that spring has sprung. But did you know that in most of the lower 48 states you can find robins throughout winter? Some are migrants from further north but some are resident birds that stay year-round. These winter-resident robins usually flock up and spend their time in wooded areas rather than lawns, so people don't tend to notice them until they start pairing off and singing their courtship songs in spring.

The near term picture is looking a little more bleak though as snow and colder weather returns tomorrow. This winter pattern will persist at least through the weekend.

Email your weather questions toweather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Jeff Oechslein.

FEBRUARY 14, 2009: SNOW SHOWERS VS. FLURRIES

These two terms get thrown around a lot…so what is the difference? According to the Glossary of Meteorology, not much. These two terms generally refer to the intensity of a snowfall.

A snow shower is a brief, moderate amount of snowfall that can give us a quick inch of accumulation and limits visiblities to about a half-mile (techinically a moderate snow shower reduces visibilities in between 5/16 and 5/8 of a mile according to the Glossary).

Snow flurries are the lightest form of snowfall. Whenever you spot some snowflakes that are too light to accumulate on the ground, those are typically snow flurries. Sometimes snow flurries are so light they do not even get sensed by the radar. Flurries also do not last as long as snow showers. Snow flurries may only a last a few minutes at a time, which limits accumulation as well.

Email your weather questions to weather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Mike Skurko.

FEBRUARY 14, 2009: BREAKING THE ICE

This past week, a dose of unusually warm weather for this time of year gave us some problems with ice jams and flooding potential. It seems like a simple recipe…warm weather will melt the ice. But do you know exactly what causes the ice to jam?

Yes, part of the reason is the warmth will simply help break the ice apart. It sounds dumb to say, as we all know that when the weather warms up, the ice on top of a river will slowly begin melting. As it melts, the ice sheet will not bond together as strongly, and may reach a point where enough melting will cause it to break apart.

However, the largest cause of ice jams comes from a pressure buildup underneath the ice itself. As warm weather sets in, the snow on land melts and eventually all of that melted snow runs into a river or stream. This will provide these rivers with excess water. The half-inch of rainfall we saw this past week also funnels its way into a river…adding more water to the river.

Adding all this water to the river will start exerting pressure upwards on the ice sheet at the surface. If enough water from melted snow and rainfall is added to a river, the pressure may be too great and the ice will be forced to break apart. It's sort of a mini explosion from underneath, as a small break in the ice will act as a released pressure valve. These large chunks of ice are then carried downstream by the river, and can get jammed under a bridge or a more narrow part of the river.

Email your weather questions to weather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Mike Skurko.

FEBRUARY 12, 2009: EARLY SEVERE OUTBREAK

What a windy Wednesday and Thursday we had this week. Winds gusted over 58 miles per hour with rain showers as a cold front moved into the Ohio Valley Wednesday evening, prompting severe thunderstorm warnings for just about the entire area. The strange thing was, there was very little thunder and lightning with these showers. But since the winds gusted above the wind speed needed to meet the criteria for severe thunderstorms, the warnings were issued.

A thunderstorm is also considered to be severe if it produces hail at least three-quarters of an inch in diameter, which is about the size of a dime. So, to be considered severe by the National Weather Service, the storm needs to have powerful winds or large hail. Surprisingly, lightning and thunder are really not considered in the severe thunderstorm determination. Certainly most storms that produce strong winds and large hail in the warmer and more humid months have a lot of thunder and lightning, but that was not the case for our recent severe storms.

Our severe thunderstorms came while a tornado watch was in effect for much of the area. A watch means that conditions are favorable for the weather event to occur, and that there is a pretty good chance but not a certainty that it will occur. When you are talking about tornadoes, however, that chance can actually be rather small. Wednesday evening the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center gave any given spot in the area about a three percent chance of having a tornado, while the chance of severe thunderstorm winds was about 40 percent.

Once a warning is issued, then you know that the given weather event is actually happening or will occur imminently. It is your call to action to take immediate measures to safeguard your life and property. Our severe thunderstorm warnings Wednesday evening were a little unusual for this early in the year, but we did have one severe thunderstorm day last February, and actually one in January as well. Then things calmed down, and our next severe thunderstorm day held off until May 31. Don’t count on such a quiet early spring happening again this year.

E-mail your weather questions to weather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Kevin Carter .

FEBRUARY 10, 2009: ACTIVE WEATHER

One thing is for sure; our weather right now is anything but boring! First up, our recent mild temperatures have broken up the ice on area creeks and streams. Some of this ice is jamming, causing the National Weather Service to issue flood watches for a few of these creeks.

The mild weather has been accompanied by rain as well. A lot of snow and ice has melted, and combined with the rain has caused area creeks and streams to run on the high side even without any ice jams. Eventually this will run into the bigger rivers in the area, so they too will rise. While there are no watches and warnings for local rivers as of this Tuesday evening, the Tuscarawas River in New Philadelphia is not far from flood stage, and the Ohio River is forecast to rise about ten feet from its Tuesday evening levels, which would bring it to five to nine feet below flood stage locally.

Wednesday is expected to be very mild, with temperatures in the 60’s. A strong cold front will approach during the afternoon and move through during the evening. This will bring the threat of strong to severe thunderstorms, not something we have all that often in February. The National Weather Service has us in the slight risk area for severe thunderstorms for Wednesday, with about a thirty percent chance of severe thunderstorms.

Strong low pressure will pass by to our north as this cold front moves through, helping generate strong winds. The Weather Service has issued a high wind watch for the area for Wednesday afternoon through Thursday evening, with sustained winds over 40 miles per hour and wind gusts over 58 miles per hour possible. That’s a lot of weather for a short period of time, and I didn’t even get to the possibility of snow returning as early as Thursday and perhaps again over the weekend!

E-mail your weather questions to weather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Kevin Carter .

FEBRUARY 9, 2009: RIME ICE

I received a few emails and phone calls about a coating of snow that fell early this morning, but that wasn’t snow. You may think it's snow, but it could be rime ice formed when water droplets in clouds or fog freeze to the trees. Often, the rime ice forms just on the windward (wind-facing) slope of the mountain as clouds sweep over the ridge. Many times, the rime ice will coat the trees and the ground is dry.

Rime ice shouldn’t be a reoccurring theme this week as temperatures are expected to get quite warm. In fact our spring fling might be accompanied by thunderstorms on Wednesday. The Severe Storms Prediction Center has the area under a slight risk for Severe Storms on Wednesday.

Email your weather questions toweather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Jeff Oechslein.

FEBRUARY 8, 2009: SPRING-LIKE STORM OUTBREAK TUES/WED

A big surge of warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico is putting the Mississippi Valley and the lower Ohio River Valley on alert for severe thunderstorm outbreaks on Tuesday and Wednesday. For the first time this year, our viewing area is circled under this region of possible severe weather for Wednesday by the Storm Prediction Center…which specializes in predicting severe weather outbreaks.

Fortunately, we are on the northernmost fringe of the region, and it looks like the primary threat of severe thunderstorms, tornados, and/or hail will be well to our south. Right now Kentucky and Tennessee appear to have the highest chance of spring-like severe thunderstorms to form on Wednesday. However, it is possible for us to still hear a few distant rumbles of thunder with the rain showers we are expected to receive.

Email your weather questions to weather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Mike Skurko.

FEBRUARY 7, 2009: GREAT LAKES ICE BREAKING UP

Earlier today a slab of ice on Lake Erie broke loose from the Ohio shoreline, leaving over 100 people stranded. This part of Lake Erie is usually the quickest to freeze over every year, but today's 50-degree temperatures and strong southwesterly winds helped break the ice apart.

A very mild trend this week, combined with a few rounds of rain showers as well, could create more situations like this over the next couple of days. At least 90% of Lake Erie has already frozen over, with a complete thaw not likely until the spring season is well underway.

This is primarily because the overall temperature of a large body of water takes a longer time to respond than the surrounding land. For example, even though temperatures in mid-April average in the 50's, the lake water will be lagging behind and might not reach this temperature for another month. Likewise, the lakes typically do not start freezing over until mid-January, even though air temperatures are below freezing weeks before. You can see daily data for ice coverage over the Great Lakes courtesy of the Canadian Ice Service website here.

Email your weather questions to weather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Mike Skurko.

FEBRUARY 6, 2009: WARMING UP

If you are tired of the cold weather, things are looking up. Certainly temperatures are heading up, at least for the near future. After flirting with a record low Thursday morning, we should come very close to a record high on Saturday.

My predicted high for Saturday is 56 degrees, just one shy of the record for February 7. That record is another one of those recent entries in the record book, 57 degrees set in 2005. This really is a record just waiting to be broken again, because it is the lowest record high temperature we have in the book.

There’s more good news if you are tired of winter. The average high temperature bumps up a degree to 36 on Saturday, and it inches up to 37 degrees on Tuesday. The average low climbs to 20 degrees on Wednesday. These both keep heading up right into July, so we are gradually leaving the dead of winter behind.

And consider this . . . the last time we had a below zero temperature this late in the winter season was back in 1995, when the temperature fell to -3 degrees on February 12. It will still be cold, and we could still have a big snow storm or two, but it could well be that the worst of the winter is behind us.

E-mail your weather questions to weather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Kevin Carter .

FEBRUARY 5, 2009: NEAR RECORD LOW

The official low temperature this Thursday morning nearly broke the record low for the date. We officially came in right at zero degrees, just above the record low of -3 set just two years ago. Several National Weather Service reporting stations in the area came in below zero, including -3 at New Philadelphia, and -4 at both Youngstown and the Canton-Akron airport. Some of those unofficial thermometers in the area even showed temperatures of -10 degrees or colder!

It was a good setup for a cold night. After picking up some fresh snow during the evening hours, the skies cleared during the second half of the night, and the winds died down a bit. This allowed for what little heat we had to radiate out into space, dropping the temperatures to those frosty levels at or below zero. If the clouds had stuck around or the winds had stayed a bit higher, it would not have been quite as cold.

As noted above, the record low for Thursday was set in 2007. The record high for Thursday was set just last year. The same is true for Friday; the record high set last year, and the record low set two years ago. I checked the record book, and it turns out that there is only one other day where the record high and low have both been set since the year 2000. On January 13, the record high was set in 2005 and the record low in 2007.

We have a lot of recent records in the book. Since the year 2000, 43 daily high temperature records have been set, while 18 new record lows have been established. An impressive 53 daily precipitation records have been set since 2000, and ten daily snowfall records have fallen.

E-mail your weather questions to weather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Kevin Carter .

FEBRUARY 3, 2009: MORE ON THAT COLD AND SNOWY JANUARY

Mike Skurko already took a look at how snowy this past January was. Indeed, our foot and a half of snow was about a half foot above average and pushed our seasonal total to more than two feet, about four inches above average. If we pick up just an average amount of snow the rest of this snow season, we would end up with something like 44 or 45 inches of snow by the time our last snow falls this spring. Our average snow for February, March, and April is about 18 inches.

Besides being snowy, January was also much colder than average. The average high for the month was 29.4 degrees, almost six degrees below average. The average low of 15.1 degrees came in nearly four degrees cooler than usual. This was a big change from last January, when our average high was 38.8 degrees and our average low was 23.4 degrees, nearly nine degrees warmer than this year.

This time around January was a bit wetter than average, thanks in large part to all of that snow. Our total precipitation was 3.19 inches of rain and melted ice and snow, about two-thirds of an inch above average.

E-mail your weather questions to weather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Kevin Carter .

FEBRUARY 2, 2009: GROUNDHOG HAS BAD NEWS

Hear Ye Hear Ye
On Gobbler's Knob this glorious Groundhog Day, February 2nd, 2009
Punxsutawney Phil, Seer of Seers, Prognosticator of all Prognosticators
Awoke to the call of President Bill Cooper
And greeted his handlers, Ben Hughes and John Griffiths
After casting a joyful eye towards thousands of his faithful followers,
Phil proclaimed that his beloved Pittsburgh Steelers were World Champions one more time
And a bright sky above me
Showed my shadow beside me.
So 6 more weeks of winter it will be.

This makes it the 97th time since 1886 that Phil predicted 6 more weeks of winter. Phil rarely calls for an early spring. In fact it has only happpened 14 such times over 123 years.

Email your weather questions toweather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Jeff Oechslein.