SEVERE WEATHER TEAM 9 WEATHER BLOG
WELCOME TO THE SEVERE WEATHER TEAM 9 WEATHER BLOG
Greetings everyone and welcome to the Severe Weather Team 9 Weather Blog. If you have a passion for weather, you've come to the right place.We'll use this forum to discuss Ohio Valley weather in greater detail and answer as many weather questions as possible. You can send in your questions to weather@wtov.com.
NOVEMBER 3, 2009: A REALLY COOL MONTH
We did not have any snow in October, and we only set one record low temperature. However, last month still managed to be our coolest October since at least 1991.
Our average high temperature in October was 59 degrees, almost six degrees below the average of 64.7 degrees. The average low of 41.7 degrees was 1.6 degrees below the average of 43.3 degrees. The overall average temperature of 50.4 degrees last month was 3.6 degrees below average, making it our fourth cooler than average month out of the last five, and second in a row.
Last month was the coolest October since I arrived here in 1991, but judging by the National Weather Service records at Pittsburgh, this was likely our coldest October since 1988. Despite the overall chill, we only set one record low temperature, 28 degrees on October 19, which also was our coldest temperature of the month. The warmest reading last month was 75 degrees on October 30.
October is typically our driest month of the year, but this time around we were wetter than average. We received 3.16 inches of rain last month, 0.8 inches above average. This made October wetter than five other months this year (September, July, June, March, and February). The wettest day was October 15, with 0.46 inches of rain. Severe weather was hard to find, with severe thunderstorms in the area only on October 9.
E-mail your weather questions to weather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Kevin Carter .
OCTOBER 30, 2009: TRICK OR TREAT!
Showers are expected to pull out of the area by Saturday afternoon, so the current Trick or Treat Forecast is calling for a cloudy sky with a temperature of 50 degrees. That is 31 degrees colder than our warmest Halloween temperature on record!
It was a real treat on October 31, 1950 when the temperature reached 81 degrees! We had to wait a little less than a month to get tricked as Mother Nature dumped over 3 feet of snow on the area for Thanksgiving that year! Speaking of snow does anyone remember trick or treating in 1993?
That's right 2 inches of snow fell on October 31, 1993, our snowiest Halloween on record. In fact that is also the record snowfall for any day in October.Email your weather questions toweather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Jeff Oechslein.
OCTOBER 28, 2009: ANOTHER WET FOOTBALL FRIDAY?
The fifth Friday evening of October is just around the corner. If it’s anything like the first four Fridays this month, you might want to get out the rain gear.
Our rain gauge has been busy on Fridays this month. Last week we picked up a half inch of rain, while we collected 0.08 inches two Fridays ago. The first two weeks of October were also wet on Friday, with 0.40 inches of rain on October 9 and 0.39 inches on October 2.
These wet football Friday October evenings are a switch from September. No measurable rain fell on any of the four Fridays last month, with only a trace of rain recorded on September 11. The rest all came in with no precipitation at all.
The football season kicked off for many on the last Friday of August, which was a wet day around here. We picked up 0.6 inches of rain that day, enough to prompt some flood advisories in the area. The computer models are mixed in their outlook for rain this Friday, but since it’s still October, the rain drops could be flying when the footballs fill the air!
E-mail your weather questions to weather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Kevin Carter .
OCTOBER 24, 2009: A WINTER WITHOUT SNOW IN MOSCOW?
That’s right. The mayor of Moscow, Yury Luzhkov, is promising a winter without snow. But how does he plan on making this work? The Russian Air Force will use cement powder, dry ice or silver iodide to spray the clouds from November to March — and only to prevent "very big and serious snow" from falling on the city so that still means a few flakes could slip through the cracks. Authorities say this would be a blessing for Moscow which is typically covered with a blanket of snow from November to March.
How much does something like this cost? The price tag on this project is between $2-3 million, but with a city budget of $40 billion a year (larger than New York City's budget), Moscow can easily afford to keep the skies blue.So what will happen to the snow that was supposed to fall in Moscow? Well, the chemical mist sprayed in the clouds will force the snow to be dumped outside of the city, in the suburbs. So needless to say, the residents living outside of the city aren’t too thrilled that they will be receiving all the extra snow that Moscow turns away.As strange as it may seem, Luzhkov is no stranger to playing God. Each year on Victory Day and City Day, Moscow pays the air force to prevent rain from falling on the city's celebrations. And several years ago, he spearheaded a project to reverse the flow of the River Ob through Siberia to help irrigate other Central Asian regions, a plan that met with limited success.The proposal still needs to be assessed by environmental experts, who aren’t pleased with the project’s rapid approval by the City Council.Email your weather questions toweather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Kristin Walls.
OCTOBER 22, 2009: WOOLLY ANIMALS AND WEATHER
What is up with woolly animals and the weather? We already discussed the woolly bear caterpillar being a possible, but not all that likely, predictor of winter weather. I found something new on the woolly worms that suggest that these worms may be able to tell us something about the weather in the past but not in the future.Mike Peters, an entomologist at the University of Massachusetts, doesn't disagree, but he says there could, in fact, be a link between winter severity and the brown band of a woolly bear caterpillar. "There's evidence," he says, "that the number of brown hairs has to do with the age of the caterpillar—in other words, how late it got going in the spring. The [band] does say something about a heavy winter or an early spring. The only thing is . . . it's telling you about the previous year."Now lets transition from woolly worms to Wooly the Lamb. Who? Well according to the Museum of Television and Radio, Wooly Lamb happened to be the first to deliver a weather forecast on television. Wooly Lamb was a cartoon character who began each weather segment by looking skyward with a telescope, then facing viewers and singing:“Its hot, its cold. Its rain, its fair. It’s all mixed up together. But I, as Botany’s wooly lamb predict tomorrow’s weather.” Wooly Lamb made his first forecast 68 years ago on October 14, 1941 on New York City’s WNBC.Email your weather questions toweather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Jeff Oechslein.
OCTOBER 20, 2009: ORIONID METEOR SHOWER
The Orionid meteor shower, one of the biggest and brightest of the year, is at its peak tomorrow morning. While most annual meteor showers are pretty minor events for the casual observer, the Orionids are one of the two or three best in the year, especially as this year there will be no moon to interfere with seeing the fainter meteors. The Orionids, like most meteor showers, are caused by particles associated with a comet, in this case, the famous Halley's Comet. The Orionids typically produce about 15 to 20 meteors per hour at their peak, for skywatchers with dark skies and good weather. Urban and suburban residents will see far fewer, however, due to local light pollution.The best time to view the meteor shower is between 1 AM and dawn. The shower's maximum activity will occur at 6 a.m. EDT Wednesday, just before dawn in the Ohio Valley.Telescopes and binoculars are of no use, because meteors move too quickly. Be sure to dress warmly, as it will be chilly. A blanket and pillow or lounge chair allows comfortable positioning so you can look up for long stretches. Lie back and allow 15 minutes for your eyes to adjust to the darkness, then give the show at least a half hour to play out through spurts and lulls.Enjoy the Show!
Email your weather questions toweather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Kristin Walls.
OCTOBER 20, 2009: YET ANOTHER WINTER PREDICTION
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released their winter outlook last week.
El Niño in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean is expected to be a dominant climate factor that will influence the December through February winter weather in the United States, according to the 2009 Winter Outlook released today by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. Such seasonal outlooks are part of NOAA’s suite of climate services.“We expect El Niño to strengthen and persist through the winter months, providing clues as to what the weather will be like during the period,” says Mike Halpert, deputy director of the Climate Prediction Center – a division of the National Weather Service. “Warmer ocean water in the equatorial Pacific shifts the patterns of tropical rainfall that in turn change the strength and position of the jetstream and storms over the Pacific Ocean and the U.S.”“Other climate factors are also likely to play a role in the winter weather at times across the country,” added Halpert. “Some of these factors, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation are difficult to predict more than one to two weeks in advance. The NAO adds uncertainty to the forecast in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic portions of the country.”This seasonal outlook does not predict where and when snowstorms may hit or total seasonal snowfall accumulations. Snow forecasts are dependent upon winter storms, which are generally not predictable more than several days in advance.Email your weather questions toweather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Jeff Oechslein.
OCTOBER 18, 2009: TASTE OF AN INDIAN SUMMER
After the past week with temperatures well below normal, it seemed we already jumped right into the winter season. Temperatures by the end of the week dropped to 39 degrees F, which was 25 degrees below normal. Typically average temperatures this time of the year are around 64 degrees F. The good news is this weather pattern is about to take a turn for the good.We first have to take one more hit with freezing temperatures. The National Weather Service issued a freeze warning that is widespread for tomorrow morning. Unfortunately this means a likely end to the growing season. Temperatures are expected to drop into the upper 20’s to around 30 degrees F overnight. But once we get through this freezing night, temperatures start climbing.We start the work week off with temperatures in the upper 50’s to lower 60’s. By mid-week, temperatures will climb into the upper 60’s with the possibility of reaching 70 degrees by Thursday. These warm temperatures will feel like summer is back especially after a cold and gloomy past week.Email your weather questions toweather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Kristin Walls.
OCTOBER 15, 2009: ALREADY TIRED OF THE COLD AND DAMP WEATHER? TAKE A VIRTUAL VISIT TO CALIFORNIA
Is this the middle of October? It feels like the middle of December! Today’s high temperature in the lower 40’s is a little more typical of what you would see on December 8th. On Friday and Saturday the forecast is calling for a high temperature of 39 degrees which happens to be the average high temperature for December 20th!If all this cold, damp dreary weather is bringing you down take a visit to sunny California. My wife and I, along with a group of folks right here in the Ohio Valley recently returned from a dream California vacation. The weather was sunny all the way from San Francisco to Los Angeles. Check out some of the pictures we took: Jeff’s Trip to California..
Email your weather questions toweather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Jeff Oechslein.
OCTOBER 13, 2009: ARE YOU READY FOR SOME SNOW?
Snow is in the forecast, if not the air. Well, at least the threat of some snow. Or at the very least, the threat of some wet snowflakes mixed in with some very cold rain over the next few days.
Snow this time of year is not out of the question, but it is early. Our earliest autumn snow on record was on October 4, 1959, when 0.3 inches fell. More recently we had a trace of snow on both October 7, 2000 and October 12, 2006. The next earliest October snow was a trace on October 18, 1992, so if we do manage to get any snow before Sunday, it would be our fourth earliest snow on record.
Last year’s first snow came on October 28, when a trace fell. We had to wait until November 17 before our first measurable snow of 0.4 inches was recorded. In 2007, the first trace of snow waited until November 6, and the first measurable snow did not come until a half inch fell on December 3.
I noted above that we had a trace of snow on the early date of October 12, 2006. That did not mean a snowy fall or early winter was coming, as we had to wait all the way until January 9, 2007 for our first measurable snow of 0.3 inches to fall. Time will tell how snowy this upcoming winter will be.
E-mail your weather questions to weather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Kevin Carter .
OCTOBER 8, 2009: TRACKING THE CHANCES OF RAIN
Hopefully you’ve noticed that your Severe Weather Team 9 meteorologists put a probability of precipitation (POP) estimate (in multiples of 10%) for each day in our five day forecasts. I took a look at how accurate my estimate has been for the first day of the five day forecast. I checked my predictions against the actual amount of precipitation recorded by the Filtration Plant in Steubenville for the next day. I considered any day with at least 0.01 inches of precipitation as a wet day, and days with a trace or no precipitation as a dry day.
I looked at my last 63 forecasts, dating back into the middle of June. Over these past weeks, I used every multiple of 10% except for 100% (which ironically enough I used tonight for the expected heavy rains on Friday). The most common POP used was 50% with 12, followed by 10% with 11. Other commonly used POP’s were 20% and 30% at 9 each, while the 0% and 80% POP’s were only used twice.
It did not rain on either of the two 0% POP days, and all 11 of the 10% POP days were dry as well. Rain fell on two of the nine 20% POP days and on two of the nine 30% POP days as well, which works out to 22%. So, for the lower range of the POP’s, the forecasts were very close to what actually happened.
The higher POP days were not so clear cut. It rained on three of the five 40% POP days, which works out to 60%, and ten of the twelve 50% days were wet as well, coming in at 83%. Only one of the two 80% days had rain, a 50% rate of wet weather. It rained on all three of the 90% days and all five of both the 60% and 70% days, so those all checked in at a 100% rate of rain. I’ll revisit this subject at a later date to see how the POP’s are working out.
E-mail your weather questions to weather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Kevin Carter .
OCTOBER 7, 2009: CAN WOOLLY WORMS FORECAST WINTER WEATHER?
While cutting the grass the other day I noticed a woolly worm. Folklore has it that these guys are really miniature weather forecasters. Careful observation of these short, fuzzy caterpillars in the fall supposedly can tell you what kind of weather the coming winter will hold.The woolly worms of winter weather forecasting fame are black at each end with a reddish brown band in the middle. The size of the brown band is said to be an indicator of winter's severity. The narrower the band, the harsher the winter. If woolly worms are more brown than black and the middle band tends toward orange, that indicates the winter will be mild.Well, that's a fun bit of folk wisdom, but it's simply not true. The experts at the West Virginia University Extension Service say there is no scientific evidence suggesting that woolly worms can predict the weather. The West Virginia University scientists say variations in their bands are linked to differences in species and larval stage, not the weather.So, woolly worms cannot be counted on to provide a peek at what the coming winter holds. Still, this fall's woolly worms will become next spring's moths and that in itself is pretty amazing.Email your weather questions toweather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Jeff Oechslein.
OCTOBER 4, 2009: Orion’s Constellation – Best Viewing Times
Orion is one of the largest and most recognizable constellations in the sky. The constellation includes the Belt of Orion which is three bright stars in a row. Surrounding the belt at roughly similar distances are four bright stars, which are considered to represent the outline of the hunter's body.
For an observer in Ohio, here are the times when all stars in the belt are at least a few degrees above the horizon.January 1 -- 5:30 PM to 4:30 AM
February 1 -- 3:30 PM to 2:30 AM
March 1 -- 1:30 PM to 12:30 AM
April 1 -- 11:30 AM to 10:30 PM
May 1 -- 9:30 AM to 8:30 PM
June 1 -- 7:30 AM to 6:30 PM
July 1 -- 5:30 AM to 4:30 PM
August 1 -- 3:30 AM to 2:30 PM
September 1 -- 1:30 AM to 12:30 PM
October 1 -- 11:30 PM to 10:30 AM
November 1 -- 9:30 PM to 8:30 AM
December 1 -- 7:30 PM to 6:30 AM
As you can see, Orion's belt is above the horizon about 11 hours a day, but some of these times are in daylight! You can't see stars during the day, so that's why the belt is not always visible.The numbers above show that the times move back about 2 hours a month. In early September, you can see the belt in the wee hours of the morning. Each month, the times get earlier. Around December, the belt is visible for most of the night. Towards spring, the belt is visible in the evening but not in the morning hours. Around early May, we get to the point where the belt is not visible at all because it is up only during daylight or twilight. In mid-June, the sun is very close to the constellation Orion; whenever the belt is above the horizon in June, the sun is also up, so you can't see it at all this time of year.Email your weather questions toweather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Kristin Walls.
OCTOBER 1, 2009: SEPTEMBER’S GONE AND PROBABLY FORGOTTEN
There was not much to note weather-wise about the past month. Our highest temperature was 83 degrees on September 6, and our coolest reading was 42 degrees during the last minute of the last day of the month. We did not set any record highs or lows, with the average high for the month of 73.4 degrees nearly two and a half degrees below normal. The average low of 55.9 degrees was just over a degree above normal.
This trend of cooler than average high temperatures has now reached four months in a row, and the average high five months ago was right on normal. January’s average high was also cooler than normal, while the average high temperatures in February, March, and April were all above normal.
Not only did September as a whole come in cooler than average, but it was also drier than average as well. We received 2.12 inches of rain last month, 0.85 inches below normal. The month started really dry, with measurable rain on only two of the first nineteen days of the month. We made up for that a bit with measurable rain on nine of the last ten days of the month. At month’s end, we had received 26.42 inches of rain and melted snow, compared to the year to date average of 28.72 inches.
The wettest day of the month was September 27 with 0.57 inches of rain, followed by 0.55 inches on September 8. Severe weather was hard to find, with a couple of days with flood watches issued (September 7 and 26), along with one day with both a wind advisory and a severe thunderstorm warning (September 28).
E-mail your weather questions to weather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Kevin Carter .
SEPTEMBER 28, 2009: THE HEAT IS GONE
Chances are we won’t see any more hot days this year. For some folks, that’s a sad thing to hear, but for others, bring on the cool weather! Certainly the next two days will be very cool, with daytime temperatures more appropriate for November than the end of September.
We only had three 90 degree days this year, the same as last year. There is very little chance of hitting 90 degrees from here on out. The latest we ever hit 90 degrees was in 1949, when it was 91 degrees on October 10. For every other day in October, the record high is below 90 degrees.
Forget about 90 degrees, what about 80? Over the past five years, we have managed to reach 80 degrees or above 13 times after October 1. But it’s generally a hit or miss kind of thing. Last year we hit 81 on October 12. In 2006 and 2004, we never warmed up to 80 degrees after October 1.
But in 2007, we heated up to 80 degrees or higher seven times, including six in a row from October 4 through October 9. That stretch included 88 degrees twice, 87 once, and 86 degrees twice. It was also toasty in October, 2005, with five days at or above 80 degrees.
E-mail your weather questions to weather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Kevin Carter .
SEPTEMBER 22, 2009: HAPPY AUTUMNAL EQUINOX
Today is a date that most of us recognize as symbolic of changing seasons. As we welcome fall, people south of the equator are actually gearing up for spring.What Happens at the Equinox?Far from being an arbitrary indicator of the changing seasons, today is significant for astronomical reasons. On September 22nd, at precisely 5:18 PM EDT, the Sun will cross directly over the Earth's equator. This moment is known as the autumnal equinox in the Northern Hemisphere. For the Southern Hemisphere, this is the moment of the vernal equinox.Equinox Means "Equal Night"Translated literally, equinox means "equal night." Because the sun is positioned above the equator, day and night are about equal in length all over the world during the equinoxes.Reasons for the SeasonsThese brief but monumental moments owe their significance to the 23.4 degree tilt of the Earth's axis. Because of the tilt, we receive the Sun's rays most directly in the summer. In the winter, when we are tilted away from the Sun, the rays pass through the atmosphere at a greater slant, bringing lower temperatures. If the Earth rotated on an axis perpendicular to the plane of the Earth's orbit around the Sun, there would be no variation in day lengths or temperatures throughout the year, and we would not have seasons.Email your weather questions toweather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Jeff Oechslein.
SEPTEMBER 18, 2009: FRANCES AND IVAN HAD COMPANY
Five years ago this month, the Ohio Valley was hammered not once but twice by the remains of tropical systems. The moisture from Frances dropped 4.37 inches of rain on us September 8 and 9, followed by 5.49 inches of rain from Ivan on September 17 and 18. This caused widespread flooding and helped make September 2004 our wettest September and third wettest month on record.
Since the year 2002, five other tropical systems have produced notable impacts on our weather. The most recent came last September, and it did not involve rain. The remnants of Ike blasted the area with wind gusts of up to 81 miles per hour as it moved through the Ohio Valley, causing widespread damage. Also last year, the remains of Fay brought 1.32 inches of rain on August 27 and 28.
We were spared any direct impact from the tropics in 2007 and 2006, but on August 29 through August 31, 2005, we were soaked by moisture from Katrina to the tune of 3.62 inches of rain. We already discussed what happened in 2004 from Frances and Ivan, but another September visitor came from the tropics in 2003. This would be Isabel, which brought 1.70 inches of rain September 18 and 19.
The “I” storm caught us again in 2002, and again it happened in September. Isidore produced 2.83 inches of rain for us on September 26 and 27. Thus, seven tropical systems have produced major rain or wind impacts on the Ohio Valley over the last eight years, with two of these systems hitting in August and five in September.
E-mail your weather questions to weather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Kevin Carter .
SEPTEMBER 17, 2009: IVAN FIVE YEARS LATER
Five years ago on this date the remnants of Hurricane Ivan dumped 5.36 inches of rain in Steubenville. That day went down in the record books as the second wettest day on record. Rainfall amounts in Wheeling reached 9 inches. Many recall Ivan, but do you remember Frances? The remnants of Hurricane Frances deposited 3.39 inches of rain in Steubenville on September 8, 2004. This date is the 9th wettest day on record. The double whammy from the tropics in about a week time caused the widespread flooding five years ago on this date.Email your weather questions toweather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Jeff Oechslein.
SEPTEMBER 16, 2009: HOW DOES WEATHER AFFECT AUTUMN COLOR?
We are about a month away from the peak of fall foliage in the Ohio Valley. So over the next few weeks we will see the leaves begin to change color in front of our eyes. Peak color will be reached by the second or third week of October. The Ohio Department of Natural resources says that there could be a delay in color in northern Ohio due to a slight drought. In the northern region, colors could peak around the second or third week of October, shifting to central Ohio the third week and finishing in southern Ohio at the end of the month. Poison Ivy, Virginia Creeper and Buckeye trees will be the first to show their magnificent bright red and gold colors. If September’s weather is bright and sunny and the nights are cool (but not frosty) we could see remarkable peak color in October.The amount and brilliance of the colors that develop in any particular autumn season are related to weather conditions that occur before and during the time the chlorophyll in the leaves is dwindling. Temperature and moisture are the main influences. A succession of warm, sunny days and cool, crisp but not freezing nights seems to bring about the most spectacular color displays. During these days, lots of sugars are produced in the leaf but the cool nights and the gradual closing of veins going into the leaf prevent these sugars from moving out.The amount of moisture in the soil also affects autumn colors. Like the weather, soil moisture varies greatly from year to year. The countless combinations of these two highly variable factors assure that no two autumns can be exactly alike. A late spring, or a severe summer drought, can delay the onset of fall color by a few weeks. A warm period during fall will also lower the intensity of autumn colors. A warm wet spring, favorable summer weather, and warm sunny fall days with cool nights should produce the most brilliant autumn colors.Email your weather questions toweather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Jeff Oechslein.
SEPTEMBER 15, 2009: OUT OF THIS WORLD
What is this a picture of? What if I told you its our galaxy. The Milky Way galaxy said cheese, actually its a little more difficult than that as it took 1200 digital images to make this amazing picture. The image was produced by the European Southern Observatory's GigaGalaxy Zoom project. The original image contains about 800 million pixels.The image shows a stellar vista as would be seen by a human eye, pieced together from photos taken of the clear, dark skies in Chile’s Atacama Desert and the Canary Islands. The plane of the Milky Way galaxy, seen edge-on from Earth’s perspective, cuts a star-filled swath across in the middle of the image.For more information check out this article in Science News..Email your weather questions toweather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Jeff Oechslein.
SEPTEMBER 7, 2009: AUGUST FELT MORE LIKE SUMMER
It wasn’t our warmest month of all time, but August did manage to feel more like summer, especially compared to July and June. High temperatures last month averaged 81 degrees, about three degrees warmer than both June and July, but still nearly a degree below average. Low temperatures came in just shy of 63 degrees, again the warmest of the year and actually a degree and a half above average. Thus, for the month as a whole, August was a bit warmer than average.
August also featured our first three 90 degree days of the year. The hottest day was August 17, when we hit 91 degrees. We reached 90 degrees on both August 9 and August 16. These were our first 90 degree days since June 6, 8, and 9 of last year which all had highs of 90 degrees, our only three 90 degree days of 2008.
August ended up being a wetter than average month. We received 5.26 inches of rain last month, more than two inches above average and our wettest month of the year so far. We received more than an inch of rain twice in August, an inch and a half on August 10 and 1.02 inches on August 20. At month’s end, our precipitation was about an inch and a half below average at 24.3 inches.
Severe weather was not a real concern in August. We experienced two days with severe thunderstorms (August 10 and August 20), and two days with flooding of creeks and streams (August 19 and August 28) in the area.
E-mail your weather questions to weather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Kevin Carter .
SEPTEMBER 1, 2009: FARMERS ALMANAC MAKES WINTER PREDICTION
Welcome to the start of meteorological autumn and it sure felt like a new season this morning with temperatures flirting with record low temperatures in the middle to upper 40’s. Fall begins on your calendar and astronomically on September 22nd, we call this the Autumnal Equinox.For those of us who would like to look ahead right past fall and into what winter might hold I give to you this years prediction from the Farmers’ Almanac. According to the 2010 Farmers’ Almanac, this winter will see more days of shivery conditions: a winter during which temperatures will average below normal for about three-quarters of the nation.
A large area of numbingly cold temperatures will predominate from roughly east of the Continental Divide to west of the Appalachians (see map). The coldest temperatures will be over the northern Great Lakes and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. According to the Almanac this places the Ohio Valley sandwiched in between bitter cold and average temperatures. With cold weather covering much of the nation the Almanac also expects significant snowfalls for parts of every zone. For the Middle Atlantic and Northeast States, for instance, they are predicting a major snowfall in mid-February; possibly even blizzard conditions for New England.So what do I think? I am by no means ready to release the winter forecast as that will be coming your way in November. But I will drop you a hint. If this pattern that we are currently in doesn’t change before winter, get ready for a cold one.One of the climate models I look at is the CFS. Like any long range model it doesn’t have the greatest track record but then again it hasn’t performed all that bad this summer. This model shows a cold winter for the eastern half of the country.On the other hand an El Nino is expected to develop. The strength and positioning of the El Nino this winter may go a long way in determining how cold and snowy the winter will turn out. So winter weather lovers stay tuned and in the meantime enjoy the season of fall.Email your weather questions toweather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Jeff Oechslein.
AUGUST 31, 2009: NAO & TEMPERATURE: COULD THERE BE A CORRELATION?
After the coolest July on record, we finally saw our first 90 degree day on August 9th. Not only did we have one 90 degree day in August, we had two more on the 16th and 17th. Why could we have seen such a difference in our temperatures between July and August? One hypothesis could be related to the phase of the NAO. The NAO or the North Atlantic Oscillation is the fluctuations in the difference of sea level pressure between the Icelandic Low and the Azores High in the Atlantic Ocean. The NAO can either be in a positive or negative phase.Take a look at figure 1. First look at the month of July. Notice that the NAO was in a negative phase. Our average temperature for the month of July was 69.1 degrees F, which broke our old record of 69.2 degrees F. As we started approaching August, the phase slowly became positive. When the NAO became positive, we saw our first 90 degree day. Could the NAO be a good indicator of what to expect for our temperatures in the Ohio Valley?In order for this to be proven, a longer time period is needed (i.e. years). Many studies have been completed on this topic and are controversial. This hypothesis was made given data from just two months. Data was collected from the Climate Prediction Center and the Severe Weather Team 9 official thermometer in Steubenville, Ohio.Email your weather questions toweather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Kristin Walls.
AUGUST 26, 2009: SMOKEY THE BEAR PHOTO CONTEST
As you know, the Ad Council, the U.S. Forest Service, and the National Association of State Foresters led the effort to help celebrate Smokey Bear’s 65th birthday on August 9 - including an appearance by Smokey with Al Roker on The Today Show the following day.Since 1944, Smokey has been at the center of the Wildfire Prevention campaign, educating the American public about the dangers of wildfires. We are looking to get everyone involved in a new photo contest in honor of this special birthday – the “Get Your Smokey On” Flickr Photo Contest. We are asking users to submit photos showing their support for his message with a picture showing how they’re acting responsibly and trying to get others involved in wildfire prevention. You can enter the contest through Flickr, an online photo sharing service. You can add your photos to the photo sharing group and quickly enter images for others to view. The contest is easy to enter:1. Log on -- To submit your photos via Flickr™, use your Yahoo!® ID. If you do not have an account, you can sign up for free.2. Join the Smokey the Bear Flickr Group. If you are not already a member of the Smokey Bear group™, join by clicking "Join this Group?" on the group's homepage.3. Upload an image - After logging in, upload your images using the form provided.4. Send the image to Smokey’s Group - Browse to the image you wish to submit for the contest, and use the "Send to Group" function above the image to add your photograph to the Smokey Bear group photo pool.5. Tag it! -- Once added to the group, tag each photo with SmokeyBear65 through the "tag" feature in the right-hand column of the individual photo's page.The winning entries, determined by the Ad Council, the U.S. Forest Service, and the National Association of State Foresters, will have their photos used in a commemorative video celebrating Smokey’s 65th birthday and promoting his message about wildfire prevention. The contest will end on September 30, 2009, with winners announced via the video release on October 16, 2009.Email your weather questions toweather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Jeff Oechslein.
AUGUST 24, 2009: NAME THOSE CLOUDS
What are these strange long shaped clouds called? In Australia they call them Morning Glory, but they can be found elsewhere in the world and they are called “roll clouds.”A rare type of cloud known as a Morning Glory cloud can stretch 600 miles long and occur at altitudes up to 1 mile high. Although similar roll clouds have been seen at specific places across the world, the ones over Australia occur predictably every spring. Long, horizontal, circulating tubes of air might form when flowing, moist, cooling air encounters an inversion layer, an atmospheric layer where air temperature atypically increases with height. These tubes and surrounding air could cause dangerous turbulence for airplanes when clear.Email your weather questions toweather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Jeff Oechslein.
AUGUST 20, 2009: SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY
The Storms Prediction Center has the Ohio Valley under a slight risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon through tonight. Some of these storms could contain damaging winds in excess of 60 mph, hail, and drenching downpours.A very moist air mass remains entrenched across the area. At the same time a strong mid to upper level system is slowly advancing eastward through the Midwest. The combination of the two will lead to the development of thunderstorms that may turn severe. A cold front will push through the Ohio Valley tomorrow bringing an end to the severe weather threat by late day.You can track thunderstorms this afternoon by checking out our Live Interactive Radar.
Email your weather questions toweather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Jeff Oechslein.
AUGUST 18, 2009: TROPICS GET ACTIVE AFTER A SLOW START
Tropical Storm Ana developed on August 15th, this marked the latest start to a season since 1992 when Hurricane Andrew was named on August the 17th. By the way the latest starting season was 1967 when Arlene was named on August 30.Hurricane Bill, the first hurricane of the 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season, is expected to continue to strengthen and become a major hurricane by the middle of the week.Bill is currently churning over the open waters of the Atlantic, approximately 865 miles east of the Lesser Antilles, packing winds of 100 mph. Hurricane Bill is forecast to become the first major hurricane of 2009. Winds could top out higher than 130 mph, making it a Category 4 hurricane by the end of the week.Thankfully for the United States a cold front and associated upper air trough of low pressure will help steer Hurricane Bill out to sea by the weekend. This will keep the hurricane over open waters, possibly impacting Bermuda, but not the United States.Yesterday Tropical Storm Claudette made landfall along the Panhandle of Florida. Some of the leftover moisture from that system will be drawn northward into the Ohio Valley in the form of showers and thunderstorms.Email your weather questions toweather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Jeff Oechslein.
AUGUST 13, 2009: WAITING ON THE TROPICS
It has been a long time since August 13 passed without a tropical storm or hurricane in the Atlantic Ocean basin, but so far this year this part of the tropics has been quiet. You have to go all the way back to 1984 to find a slower start to the Atlantic tropical storm and hurricane season. In every year since then, there has been at least one subtropical or tropical storm or hurricane in the Atlantic basin by August 13.
Recent years have been particularly active by now. Last year 5 systems had developed by now, and there had been four storms or hurricanes by August 13 in 2007 and 2006. The Atlantic was really boiling in 2005, with nine storms or hurricanes by now, and both 2004 and 2003 had four systems by this time.
The National Weather Service (NWS) now predicts a below average Atlantic tropical storm and hurricane season, due mainly to increased wind shear in the tropics from El Nino. The NWS is predicting 7 to 11 named storms this season in the Atlantic basin, with 3 to 6 of them becoming hurricanes. So, despite the slow start, there is still plenty of time for the Atlantic basin to become active before the season winds down in the fall.
E-mail your weather questions to weather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Kevin Carter .
AUGUST 11, 2009: JULY TEMPERATURE BELOW AVERAGE FOR MUCH OF THE UNITED STATES
Locally it was the coolest July on record now according to the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) we are finding out that the July 2009 temperature for United States was below the long-term average, based on records going back to 1895. The average July temperature of 73.5 degrees F was 0.8 degrees F below the 20th century average. Precipitation across the contiguous United States in July averaged 2.90 inches, which is 0.14 inches above the 1901-2000 average.The states of Ohio, Illinois, Indiana, West Virginia, and Pennsylvania experienced their coolest July on record. Kentucky, Missouri, Wisconsin, and Michigan each had their second coolest July on record, while Minnesota and Tennessee had their third coolest July on record.As is typical when the east is cold the western half of the United States was hot. Death Valley, Calif., set a new monthly average maximum temperature at 121.3 degrees F. Temperatures in Death Valley reached 120 degrees F or higher for 22 days, beating the old record of 19 days.Several western locations recorded their all-time warmest July. Seattle-Tacoma Airport had an average July temperature of 69.5 degrees F, which was 4.2 degrees F above average. Seattle’s high temperature of 103 degrees F on July 29 is an all-time record. Alaska posted its second warmest July, Arizona had its third warmest, while New Mexico and Washington had their ninth warmest.Based on NOAA's Residential Energy Demand Temperature Index, the contiguous U.S. temperature-related energy demand was 13.3 percent below average in July. Much of this can be attributed to cooler-than-average conditions in the heavily-populated Northeast.Email your weather questions toweather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Jeff Oechslein.
AUGUST 6, 2009: THAT’S A LOT OF WEATHER FORECASTS!
The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) recently took a survey on how often and from where adult Americans get weather forecasts. According to the data from the survey, Americans receive some 300 billion weather forecasts each year!
About 9 out of 10 adult Americans surveyed obtain weather forecasts on a daily basis, with the average survey participant checking the weather forecast nearly four times per day. The survey revealed that most people are satisfied with the weather forecasts and have a fairly high confidence in forecasts that cover the next two days.
The NCAR researchers also asked survey respondents to put a value on what they believed the forecasts were worth. The survey respondents placed an average value of 10.5 cents per forecast received, which equates to an annual value of 31.5 billion dollars for the weather forecasts. The researchers estimated that the annual cost of making these forecasts by various government and private weather forecasters is 5.1 billion dollars.
According to the survey, the most common source for weather forecasts is local television stations, followed by cable television and radio, with web pages and newspapers bringing up the rear. The peak times for receiving weather forecasts are the early morning, early evening, and late evening.
E-mail your weather questions to weather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Kevin Carter .
AUGUST 5, 2009: WEATHER AND AGRICULTURE: FARMERS HOPE FOR DRIER WEATHER
Farmers are at the mercy of weather patterns and July was no exception. Last month was certainly an odd month with cooler than average temperatures prevailing for most of the period, but the weather was also pretty streaky as far as rainfall goes.The first three days of the month recorded some light rainfall but after that Mother Nature shut off the moisture. July 4th - 16th produced no measurable rainfall and the quality of the local crops started to decline. Because of the economic recession the prices for selling grain are at or below the cost of production, meaning a poor crop could result in a net loss profit-wise for the year.The rains finally came with July 17th – July 31st having only 2 completely dry days. Although we desperately needed the moisture, the unsettled weather pattern still has yet to exit the region which has caused a new set of problems for the local farmers.The photo directly below is of an alfalfa field in Southwestern Pennsylvania. It shows two problems that can be attributed to the unsettled weather pattern we’ve been experiencing the past two and a half weeks.
Normally alfalfa is a dark green color. However this alfalfa has begun to turn yellow because it is being eaten by a swarm of bugs. The farmer that owns this field has not been able to spray it with pesticide because the soil has been too wet to allow heavy farm tractors to drive over it. The second problem that can be seen is that this field has reached its full maturity. The issue with that is, every day that alfalfa goes over its full maturity, it loses its protein content which is vital to maintaining good nutrition in livestock. So not only is the amount of hay this alfalfa field will produce going down because it is being eaten by bugs, the quality of the plants is declining as well.A lot of the small grain crops (oats, barley, rye, summer wheat, etc.) in the area have reached their full maturity as well. The oats field pictured below is ready to be harvested.
However, it has been too wet for farmers to get their combines into the fields. The older a crop gets, the more grain it allows to fall to the ground, resulting in less grain for the farmer to sell at the feed mill.Farmers can’t collect a pay check off of crops that aren’t harvested out of the fields. The longer it takes for this unsettled weather pattern to clear out, the bigger the loss will be for the local farmers.Email any questions to weather@wtov.com.
I'm Severe Weather Team 9 intern David Kraeer.
AUGUST 1, 2009: THE COOLEST JULY OF ALL
It’s official. This July was our coolest on record, with an average temperature of 69.1 degrees. The previous coolest July was in 2000, when our average temperature was 69.2 degrees.
High temperatures in July were particularly cool compared to average, coming in 5.4 degrees below normal at 78.2 degrees. Low temperatures averaged 60.1 degrees for the month, 3.3 degrees below normal. Our coolest temperature of the month was 50 degrees, which set a record low for July 14. We still have not hit 90 degrees this year, but we came close on July 16 with the month’s warmest temperature of 88 degrees.
July started dry, but the rains came more often the second half of the month. While many parts of the region ended up wetter than normal, our official rain gauge recorded 3.1 inches of rain in July. This was 0.65 inches below average, and helped push our year to date precipitation deficit to 3.5 inches.
It was a rather quiet month for severe weather, with only one severe thunderstorm day (July 21) and one day with flood watches issued (July 31).
E-mail your weather questions to weather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Kevin Carter .
JULY 30, 2009: COOLEST JULY ON RECORD?
Meteorologist Kevin Carter was burning the midnight oil last night, looking back through the history books to find the coolest July on record. After all the searching he came to the conclusion that this July is on pace to be the coolest of all time.So far this month the average temperature to date is 68.8 degrees and if July ended today it would beat out July 2000 which recorded an average temperature of 69.2 degrees.The nearby Pittsburgh National Weather Service reports that the average temperature through July 28th has been 69 degrees. This puts July 2009 on track for being Pittsburgh’s fifth coldest since records began in 1871.We’re not the only ones experiencing an unusually cool July as much of the Midwest and Northeastern half of the United States is staying cool for the pool. You can thank a persistent trough or dip in the jet stream across the Eastern United States. On the flip side much of the Western United States is baking under a scorching heat wave. Seattle’s Sea -Tac Airport recorded an all time record high temperature of 103 degrees. Phoenix, Arizona has seen 15 days this month with temperatures at 110 degrees or higher. Check this out, the average temperature this July in Phoenix is 98.3 degrees. Now compare that to our average temperature of 68.3 degrees and you get a difference of 29.5 degrees!Email your weather questions toweather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Jeff Oechslein.
JULY 28, 2009: Could Shark Teeth Help Scientists Learn about Earth’s Past Climate?
Chattanooga, Tenn. (July 27, 2009) – Cameras flash almost every time a big, toothy shark passes in front of visitors through the viewing windows at the Tennessee Aquarium. But guests might not realize that the snaggle-toothed grin of the sand tiger shark could help give scientists a snapshot of what Earth’s climate was like eons ago.Researchers have discovered that the chemical composition of sharks’ teeth is strongly influenced by water temperature. Certain bonds develop differently in cold water compared to warm water. UCLA’s Dr. Aradhna Tripati and CalTech’s Dr Robert Eagle are attempting to calibrate the carbonate “clumped isotope” thermometer using shark teeth collected in controlled environments like the Tennessee Aquarium. “Initial experiments with shark teeth from different aquarium temperatures show that we can measure the temperature at which the fish lived, to within 1-2oC” Dr. Eagle said. “Our work with the Tennessee Aquarium will allow us to go on and examine the water temperatures in which extinct sharks lived from fossil teeth, even millions of years back in time. We also intend to go on and use this technique to investigate the body temperatures of extinct organisms of unknown physiology, such as dinosaurs. ”Recently, volunteer divers began collecting teeth inside the Aquarium’s Secret Reef exhibit for this study. No dental instruments were required however. Volunteer divers simply used their sharp eyes to collect nearly 100 teeth on the bottom of the exhibit that the sharks had lost.Sandbar and sand tiger sharks lose teeth almost daily according to senior aquarist Rob Mottice. “Most sharks have seven rows of teeth in each jaw,” Mottice said. “And since they lose a tooth from the front row every 10-14 days, they will literally generate thousands of teeth in their lifetime to replace the lost ones.”The teeth collected in the Secret Reef will give the scientists a control group of samples from 78 degree water. These will be examined along with shark teeth collected from other Aquariums. “The London Aquarium has offered us teeth at 75 deg. F, and the Monterey Bay Aquarium has offered us some teeth from a tank that is at 65 deg. F,” Dr. Tripati said.While these researchers are sinking their teeth into solving climate mysteries that may be locked in enamel, the Tennessee Aquarium is hoping everyone sees sharks in a new light because of this project and other knowledge gained about these apex predators.Email your weather questions toweather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Jeff Oechslein.
JULY 21, 2009: IT’S ALL DOWN HILL FROM HERE
Today, the 21st of July, marks the beginning of the end. The beginning of the end of what is supposed to be the warmest time of the year, that is.
Our average high today is 85 degrees, and the average low is 65 degrees. Tomorrow, the average high falls a degree to 84. On Friday, the 24th of July, the average low drops to 64 degrees. You know where this is going . . . all the way down to an average high of 34 degrees and an average low of 18 degrees on January 9.
In many years, some of us are looking forward to those cooler temperatures. But not so much this year, considering how cool it has been for July. We are three weeks into the month, and we are on pace for our coolest July in at least 18 years. So far this month, our average high temperature is 77.6 degrees, and our average low is 58.4 degrees. This puts us about 5.5 degrees below average for the month.
Our coolest July in recent years was the year 2000, when we were 4.2 degrees cooler than average. The last couple of years have also been cool in July, with temperatures about a degree cooler than average last year, and three degrees shy of average in 2007. If we don’t warm up over the last ten days of July, this will be our coolest month compared to average since February 2007, when we shivered through temperatures 8.4 degrees below average.
E-mail your weather questions to weather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Kevin Carter .
JULY 14, 2009: IT SURE HASN’T FELT LIKE JULY
About a week ago I detailed how cool this summer started. Our weather really hasn’t changed since then. We are now two weeks into the month of July, and we’ve had more days with highs in the 70’s and 60’s (8) than in the 80’s (6).
We still haven’t had a high temperature above average this month, with only one high (84 degrees on July 10) matching the normal for the date. Low temperatures are just about as chilly, with one low right at average (63 degrees on July 12) and one low above average ( a balmy 68 degrees on July 11). The rest of the nights this month have been cooler than average.
When you add it all up, temperatures for the first two weeks of July are running 5.2 degrees below average. The only day that came in above average was July 11, when the high of 82 and that warm low of 68 averaged 1.5 degrees above normal. Highs in July have averaged 77.3 degrees, and lows have averaged 57.9 degrees. This is closer to what we typically have in either (take your pick) early June or the middle of September.
An even bigger story is how dry it has been. We received only 0.31 inches of rain over the first 14 days in July, well below the average of 1.75 inches for the first two weeks of the month. All of this rain came during the first three days of the month, with only a trace of rain recorded during the last 11 days. July is on average our wettest month, with a normal rainfall of 3.75 inches. If things don’t change, we could end up threatening the record low July rainfall total of 0.85 inches set in 2002.
E-mail your weather questions to weather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Kevin Carter .
JULY 7, 2009: A COOL START TO SUMMER
It’s only the first 17 days of summer, I mean, that’s only two and a half weeks. But from the first day of summer back on June 21 through July 7, it has been on the cool side. It was especially cool the last few days of June and this first week of July, which of course included the big summer holiday weekend covering Independence Day.
Since summer started, our average high has been 78.5 degrees. This is about three and a half degrees cooler than average. We did have one warm stretch, hitting at least 83 degrees from June 22 through June 26, and we even made a run towards 90 degrees, falling just short at 89 degrees on June 25.
However, since June 27, we have not been warmer than 80 degrees, and we suffered through a five day period from June 30 through July 4 without even reaching 75 degrees. This included an abnormally cool high of 68 degrees on July 2.
The nights have been chilly as well, coming in at 59.2 degrees since the first day of summer. This is a couple degrees cooler than average. We really have not had a warm and muggy night yet this summer, with our highest lows coming in at 64 degrees on June 21 and June 26. Some of the nights have felt a lot like spring, with lows as cool as 55 degrees on July 6.
E-mail your weather questions to weather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Kevin Carter .
JULY 6, 2009: TOO COOL FOR THE SWIMMING POOL?
Sunny and hot days to jump in the swimming pool have been hard to come by the last couple of weeks. Today was the first day since June 28th that the thermometer reached 80° F. Of those past eight days, rain has been recorded on five of them.Considering the fact that 83° is our average high temperature for July, it’s been an unseasonably cool start to the month. The forecast doesn’t call for above average temperatures until Friday, when warmer air moves in.Email any questions to weather@wtov.com.
I'm Severe Weather Team 9 intern David Kraeer.
JULY 1, 2009: WHERE DID JUNE GO?
It’s already July! June is in the books, and it certainly was not a hot month. Our 89 degree high on June 25 was the closest we’ve been to 90 degrees so far this year. The monthly average high temperature of 78.1 degrees was nearly two degrees below the normal June average high temperature of 79.8 degrees.
Low temperatures came in right at the expected value of 58.2 degrees last month, so I guess only the days were cooler than usual. Our coolest night came right at the start of the month, with a low of 44 degrees on June 1. We did not set any record highs or lows during the month.
There were some very wet and stormy days in June, but not everyone shared in the heavy rains. Our rain gauge recorded 2.16 inches of precipitation, well below the average of 3.71 inches. The year to date total through June 30 stood at 15.94 inches of rain and melted snow, 2.85 inches below the average of 18.79 inches.
As for those stormy days, we had eight days with severe thunderstorms in the area and five days with flooding rains. The most severe weather came on June 17, when the area was under ten tornado warnings, fourteen severe thunderstorm warnings, and nine flood warnings.
E-mail your weather questions to weather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Kevin Carter .
JUNE 30, 2009: PAST INDEPENDENCE DAY WEATHER
Rain on Independence Day is almost just a common around here as fireworks! Since the year 2000 there has only been one year in which it did not rain on Uncle Sam’s birthday, and that year was 2005. You would think the odds are in our favor of having a dry holiday to even things out a little this decade. The early forecast for the Fourth of July is for a mix of sun and clouds with high temperatures in the upper 70’s.
Email your weather questions toweather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Jeff Oechslein.
JUNE 29, 2009: UNSETTLED WEATHER MOVING IN
An upper level low will move into the area Monday night into Tuesday, bringing with it unseasonably cool temperatures and scattered rain showers that will last through Thursday.
In addition to cool temperatures on the ground, this low will also bring in very cold air aloft. This low is also expected to stall out and linger over the area, so we can expect showers to move through periodically for the rest of the work week.A few rumbles of thunder are possible here and there and although we aren’t expecting any severe weather from this system, the cold pool of air in the upper levels means there is a potential for a few small hail showers to form. Any hail that forms should be pea size or less. Temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday will be around 15 degrees below average.Since its going to be unusually cold around here the next few days, you can expect it to be extremely hot elsewhere. If you watch the national news this week one of their stories will likely be the scorching heat from Texas to the northern Great Plains.Email any questions to weather@wtov.com.
I'm Severe Weather Team 9 intern David Kraeer.
JUNE 25, 2009: SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
A cold front will slice into sizzling heat and humidity to ignite intense thunderstorms later today towards evening.
Winds aloft are not very supportive of thunderstorm development however, the air at the surface is very juicy with dew points in the upper 60’s and air temperatures in the upper 80’s. Because of this we are included in a SLIGHT risk for severe weather. A slight risk for severe weather means well-organized storms are expected to form, but should be small in numbers.The strongest thunderstorms will be capable of producing damaging winds, hail and blinding downpours.Help contribute to Severe Weather Team 9 by emailing any storm reports, rainfall amounts, or digital pictures toweather@wtov.com.
I'm Severe Weather Team 9 intern David Kraeer.
JUNE 24, 2009: HEATING UP
Way back on April 25, we had a high temperature of 87 degrees. That’s still our warmest temperature of the year so far, even though two months have passed! We have a real shot of getting close to 90 degrees on Thursday, so perhaps we’ll have a new high for the year.
Last year we hit 90 degrees three times, and all of those came before summer actually started. It was 90 on June 6, June 8, and June 9, and after that, we never made it above the 89 degree reading reached on August 24. The last time we hit 90 degrees during the actual summer season was on September 6, 2007, when we reached 91 degrees.
Over the last 17 years, we’ve averaged about nine 90 degrees days each year. Hot days came in bunches in 2007 (15 days), 2006 (11 days), and 2005 (17 days), but we never reached 90 degrees during 2004 and 2003. The most 90 degree days in recent years came just before that two year cool spell, when we reached 90 degrees 23 days in 2002.
E-mail your weather questions to weather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Kevin Carter .
JUNE 23, 2009: LIGHTNING SAFETY AWARENESS WEEK: LIGHTNING MYTHS BUSTED
Have you ever heard the phrase, "Lightning never strikes twice"? That's actually not true. Lightning often strikes the same place numerous times. For example, the Empire State Building averages 25 lightning strikes a year. On average, every commercial jet in the U.S. is struck by lightning once a year.Believe it or not, the tires on your car do not protect you from a lightning strike. Lightning bolts have been known to measure up to 100 million volts. Two inches of rubber around your tires are not enough to stop the flow of electricity from the lightning bolt to the ground. It's actually the metal roof and sides that safely conduct electricity around you. Therefore, vehicles that are open, such as motorcycles, convertibles and bicycles, are not protected from lightning.The inside of your house isn't completely safe either. Some of the wires that supply your house come from outside and conduct electricity. Your landline phone is the best example of this. It is dangerous to talk on a corded phone during a thunderstorm. However, your cell phone is completely safe from lightning. Although unlikely, it is possible that you can be electrocuted in the shower by lightning that has traveled through your water pipes.There is good news. Metal does not attract lightning. Instead, lightning usually strikes tall and pointy structures. So wearing watches, earrings, bracelets or rings do not make you more likely to be struck by lightning.When you hear thunder, it's always best to get indoors. Don't wait until it starts to rain before you seek shelter. Lightning has been known to strike 10 to 15 miles away from the actual thunderstorm. In fact, in extreme cases, lightning has struck 100 miles from the thunderstorm.Stay safe out there and remember, "When thunder roars, get indoors."Email you questions toweather@wtov.com.
I'm Severe Weather Team 9 intern David Kraeer.
JUNE 22, LIGHTNING SAFETY AWARENESS WEEK
The week of June 21st through June 27th has been declared Lightning Safety Awareness Week. It is important to be prepared for thunderstorms and lightning. Each year about one thousand people are struck by lightning in the United States. Lightning kills between 60 and 70 people each year. So far 15 people have been killed this year in the United States from lightning strikes. If you hear thunder you are close enough to lightning, so when thunder roars, go indoors!There is an average of 25 million cloud to ground lightning strikes every year in the nation. The air near a lightning strike is hotter than the surface of the sun! So exactly why do we have lightning? Within thunderstorms there are tremendous amounts of air rising and sinking rapidly. At the top of the thundercloud it is very cold and some of the precipitation is frozen. The interaction of the liquid and frozen precipitation results in a buildup of electrical charge. The charge within the storm builds up to the point that a spark ignites. So lightning is nature’s way of equalizing the electrical charge within thunderstorms and between the thunderstorm and the ground.Email your weather questions toweather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Jeff Oechslein.
JUNE 18, 2009: MORE SEVERE WEATHER ON THE WAY
Wednesday was certainly the most active day of weather we’ve seen so far this year. Friday is shaping up to be more of the same.
The National Weather Service uses three risk categories (slight, moderate, and high) to show how numerous and strong they expect the impending severe weather to be. Our area is included within the MODERATE risk circle. A moderate risk means there will be the potential for stronger and more numerous storms than with the slight risk. Wednesday’s outlook called for a slight risk of severe weather, so Friday’s weather has the potential to be just as active, if not more. It’s very rare for our area to have a moderate risk of severe weather.
Help contribute to Severe Weather Team 9 by emailing your rainfall amounts and digital pictures toweather@wtov.com.
I'm Severe Weather Team 9 intern David Kraeer.
JUNE 16, 2009: HEAVY RAIN IN THE FORECAST
Our stretch of dry weather is about to come to an abrupt end. Rain is likely starting later tonight and continuing through Wednesday. Futurecast shows much of the area picking upwards of an inch of rain.
This could be the start of a soggy and stormy stretch as there are daily chances for rain through at least the first half of the weekend.Help contribute to Severe Weather Team 9 by emailing your rainfall amounts toweather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Jeff Oechslein.
JUNE 12, 2009: HOW WEATHER IMPACTED D-DAY
I received an email from Steve Wells who wanted to know if weather effected history and specifically battles in wars. The quick answer is yes and almost every battle throughout history has been altered in some way by weather conditions. I figured we could take a look at how weather came into the planning of D-Day since the 65 year anniversary has just recently passed.On the gray dawn of Monday, June 5th, 1944, rain slashed into the German bunkers and large waves pounded the beaches of France. This was the morning originally chosen for the Allied invasion of Europe, but the Allies postponed the invasion by 24 hours. This decision saved the Allied forces from certain destruction in the English Channel.Six forecasters working in three different teams were responsible for the D-Day forecasts. Their forecast was overly optimistic and the British Admiralty and the British Meteorological Office urged delay. They were aided by the brilliant Norwegian theoretician Sverre Petterssen who used high altitude observations in his forecasts.In the early hours of June 5th, under stormy skies of England, the forecasters advised General Eisenhower that a very short break in the weather a day later would allow the invasion to go ahead. On Tuesday, June 6th, under barely tolerable conditions, the largest amphibious landing force ever put together landed on the beaches of Normandy.Ironically the German meteorologists were aware of new storms moving in from the North Atlantic, but they had decided that the weather would be too bad to permit an invasion attempt. The Germans were caught completely off guard. Their high command had relaxed and many officers were on leave; their airplanes were grounded; their naval vessels absent. This marked the beginning of the end of the war in Europe and it depended on what were arguably the three most critical forecasts in history -- two successful ones by the Allies and one failure by the Germans.Courtesy of the Weather Notebook.Email your weather questions toweather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Jeff Oechslein.
JUNE 8, 2009: FIRST KNOWN PHOTOGRAPH OF A TORNADO
This is a picture of the first tornado to be photographed. The photo was taken in Howard, South Dakota on August 28, 1884!
Email your weather questions toweather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Jeff Oechslein.
JUNE 4, 2009: HOW DOES LIGHTNING AFFECT AIRPLANES?
According to Scientific American it is estimated that on average every commercial airplane in the United Sates gets struck by lightning. That may sound alarming to some especially after the events of earlier this week concerning the Air France crash off the coast of Brazil.It is not determined what caused the mysterious crash but according to satellite data thunderstorms were in the planes flight path. There were even estimates of 100 mph updrafts in these storms. Bill Waldock, an air-crash expert at Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University in Prescott, Arizona suspects that the weather caused some kind of violent incident. Waldock suspects the 100-mph winds the airplane apparently encountered could have gotten underneath the wings and shaken the plane. "If they hit a 100-mph updraft while they were going 525 mph, it would have thrown them violently," Waldock said. "It's way beyond what the airplane is designed to accept."So lightning may have not come into play with this disaster but in 1967 lightning caused a fuel tank explosion on a commercial airplane. This is the last known commercial plane crash due to lightning. Since that time much has been gained on how lightning affects airplanes and as a result the airplanes are equipped to handle a lightning strike.The outside of airplanes are made of aluminum which is a good conductor of electricity so if a plane is struck by lighting the charge will flow around the outside shell of the plane without affecting the inside.Email your weather questions toweather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Jeff Oechslein.
JUNE 1, 2009: A LOOK BACK AT MAY
If you try to grow anything outdoors, you know we need rain to keep the plants growing. The month of May certainly filled the bill and the rain gauges in that regard. We picked up 4.7 inches of rain in May, more than an inch above average. We are still a bit drier than average for the year to date, with 13.78 inches of rain and melted snow through the end of May, compared to the average of 15.08 inches.
The wettest day in May was May 24, when 1.95 inches of rain was recorded. This was out wettest day since June 28, 2007, and was the most rain ever recorded for the date. There were 6 days in the month with some sort of flood advisory, watch, or warning in the area, and there were also 4 severe thunderstorm days and one day with a wind advisory issued.
As for temperatures, our average high temperature for the month came in right at the average of 71.9 degrees. Low temperatures were a couple degrees above average at 50.9 degrees. Our warmest temperature in May was 84 degrees, reached on both May 22 and May 23. The coldest temperature for the month was 33 degrees on May 18, which set a record low for the date.
E-mail your weather questions to weather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Kevin Carter .
MAY 29, 2009: GETTING READY FOR HURRICANE SEASON
The first Tropical Depression of the 2009 Atlantic Tropical Storm season has formed. Tropical Depression #1 was located about 260 miles southeast of Nantucket, Massachusetts at 5 am this morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph but look for it to weaken as it moves over colder waters. So Tropical Depression # 1 will not become our first named tropical storm or hurricane but hurricane season is right around the corner as it begins June 1st and lasts through November 30th. Here is the list of names that will be used this year for tropical storms and / or hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean basin:
I'm meteorologist Jeff Oechslein.
MAY 27, 2009: A SLOW MOVING FRONT
A cold front slipped into our area Sunday night, triggering some heavy rains. Indeed, the Filtration Plant in Steubenville measured 1.95 inches of rain on Sunday, a record for the date, and the most rain they have recorded for any one day since June 28, 2007.
This front then stalled in the southern portion of our area on Memorial Day, and began to move back to the north as a warm front by Monday evening. This led to some interesting weather for our area, especially when it comes to dew points.
While warm fronts are named because they mark the leading edge of warm air moving into a cooler air mass, they also usually indicate the boundary between moist and dry air as well. Meteorologists measure the moisture content of an air mass with the dew point, which is the temperature to which air must be cooled until the water vapor in the air condenses into liquid water.
The warm front in our area on Monday night had a dramatic difference in dew points between its warm and cold sides. For example, the dew point on the south side of the front at the Allegheny County airport at 11pm Monday evening was 60 degrees, while on the other side of the front at the nearby Pittsburgh International Airport, the dew point was only 44 degrees. Ironically, the temperature at the Pittsburgh airport, on the “cool” side of the front was 72 degrees, while it was 71 degrees on the “warm” side of the front at the Allegheny County airport.The front moved north by midnight Tuesday morning, and the Pittsburgh airport’s dew point jumped to 59 degrees. Then the front slid back to the south, and Pittsburgh’s dew point fell back to 46 degrees by 4 am. The waffling continued back and forth on Tuesday as the warm front tried to move northeast, keeping our area divided into dry and moist air.
E-mail your weather questions to weather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Kevin Carter .
MAY 25, 2009: LIGHTS OUT?
Happy Memorial Day and since it is the unofficial start to summer then why is the topic of today’s blog entry “Lights Out”? Summer is just beginning and watching fireflies is an evening summer ritual for many, but some people are noticing fewer fireflies flickering in their backyards. Why might these “lightning bugs” be in decline?Lawn Care: Fireflies spend time on the ground during the day and may be susceptible to injury from lawnmowers. Scientists are gathering data to understand how fertilizers, weed killers and pesticides affect fireflies. Light: Fireflies find their mate by flashing – they need to see the flash of a mate and respond with a flash of their own. Scientists are also studying whether outdoor patio and street lights interfere with firefly mating.Water Sources: Firefly larvae live in the soil and need water to survive. Scientists are working to understand how important water supplies are to firefly survival.You can enjoy firefly watching on warm summer evenings and help scientists study fireflies! Scientists at the Museum of Science (Boston), Tufts University and Fitchburg State College are teaming up to track fireflies around the country and understand why some are disappearing. They want to know if you have fireflies in your backyard this summer. You can help them by spending ten minutes per week checking for fireflies and reporting what you find.Learn about Firefly Watch and sign up as a volunteer by visiting:Fire Fly Watch.Learn about different types of fireflies.Learn about firefly ranges and flash patterns.Email your weather questions toweather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Jeff Oechslein.
MAY 22, 2009: DON’T FRY DAY
To help reduce rising rates of skin cancer from overexposure to the ultraviolet rays of the sun, the National Council on Skin Cancer Prevention has designated the Friday before Memorial Day, May 22, 2009, as “Don’t Fry Day” to encourage sun safety awareness and to remind everyone to protect their skin while enjoying the outdoors. The action step the National Council on Skin Cancer Prevention is emphasizing for 2009 is “Slap on a Hat,” encouraging everyone to wear protective clothing like a wide-brimmed hat to provide important protection from too much sun.As warm weather approaches and millions of Americans prepare to enjoy the great outdoors, the risk for ultraviolet (UV) damage of the skin increases. Skin cancer is on the rise in the United States, and the American Cancer Society estimates that one American dies every hour from skin cancer. It is estimated that this year 62,480 cases of malignant melanoma, the most serious form of skin cancer, and more than one million cases of basal cell or squamous skin cancer will be diagnosed in the U.S.Fortunately, skin cancer is highly curable if detected in its early stages. An easy way to remember sun safety awareness is to Slip! Slop! Slap!...and Wrap — slip on a shirt, slop on sunscreen of SPF 15 or higher, slap on a hat, and wrap on sunglasses. The best way to detect skin cancer early is to examine your skin regularly and recognize changes in moles and skin growths.Most skin cancers are caused by overexposure to UV radiation. A tanned appearance has become a sign of a good look and good health, fueling the increasing trends of sunbathing and tanning beds among young adults and women. However, using a sunless self-tanning product and continuing to apply sunscreen can help greatly reduce skin cancer risk. Individuals with lighter-toned skin are more susceptible to UV damage, although people of all races and ethnicities can be at risk for skin cancer. Those who have a family history of skin cancer, plenty of moles or freckles, or a history of severe sunburns early in life are at a higher risk of skin cancer as well. To minimize the harmful effects of excessive and unprotected sun exposure, protection from intense UV radiation should be a life-long practice for everyone.The National Council on Skin Cancer Prevention is the united voice of 45 groups dedicated to reducing skin cancer morbidity and mortality in the United States. Council members represent some of the nation’s premier researchers, clinicians and advocates for melanoma and skin cancer prevention.Email your weather questions toweather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Jeff Oechslein.
MAY 21, 2009: LET’S BE PERFECTLY CLEAR
I don’t use the words sunny or clear very often in my forecasts. I usually opt for mostly clear at night and mostly sunny during the day. There’s a good reason for that. Those perfectly clear skies are hard to come by, and usually don’t last all day or all night.
Even though I forecasted clear skies for Tuesday night and a sunny day for Wednesday, there were some clouds around. The National Weather Service office in Pittsburgh scans the skies every hour, and reports the results. They spotted clouds between 6 am through 10 am Wednesday morning, and again from noon through 2 pm in the afternoon.
In fact, I went back through the National Weather Service office online climate records, hour by hour, to see when the last completely clear 24 hour day occurred. I had to go all the way back to October 10, 2008 to find one! So, even though the data says Pittsburgh averages 59 clear days a year, I think this really means days that are mostly sunny by day and mostly clear at night, and not ones that are completely cloud free. Those perfectly clear days are hard to find in our area!
E-mail your weather questions to weather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Kevin Carter .
MAY 18, 2009: FOUR HURRICANE NAMES RETIRED FROM LIST
Three hurricane names in the Atlantic and one in the eastern North Pacific were retired from the official name rotation by the World Meteorological Organization’s hurricane committee because of the deaths and damage they caused in 2008.The names Gustav, Ike and Paloma in the Atlantic and Alma in the North Pacific will not be used again. Those names would have been used again in 2014. In their place will be Gonzalo, Isaias and Paulette in the Atlantic and Amanda in the North Pacific. The committee issues the list of potential names for tropical cyclones to be used every six years for both the Atlantic basin and eastern North Pacific basin.Email your weather questions toweather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Jeff Oechslein.
MAY 16, 2009: THE POSITIVE AND NEGATIVE SIDE OF LIGHTNING
The establishment of a nationwide lightning detection network in the early 1990s enabled researchers to count lightning bolts accurately, and the numbers are stunning. The United States takes an average of 22 million lightning ground strikes per year. Of those, 90-95 percent are termed "negative," meaning the flow of electric current is from the cloud to the ground, and 5-10 percent are "positive," current flowing from ground.However, despite a significantly lower rate of occurrence, positive lightning is particularly dangerous for several reasons. Since it originates in the upper levels of a storm, the amount of air it must burn through to reach the ground usually much greater. Therefore, its electric field typically is much stronger than a negative strike. Its flash duration is longer, and its peak charge and potential can be ten times greater than a negative strike; as much as 300,000 amperes and one billion volts!Some positive strikes can occur within the parent thunderstorm and strike the ground beneath the cloud. However, many positive strikes occur near the edge of the cloud or strike more than 10 miles away, where you may not perceive any risk nor hear any thunder.Also, positive flashes are believed to be responsible for a large percentage of forest fires and power line damage. Thus, positive lightning is much more lethal and causes greater damage than negative lightning.Email your weather questions toweather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Jeff Oechslein.
MAY 15, 2009: RAIN ABOUT ON SCHEDULE
We’ve had our share of rain this month, but nothing out of the ordinary. Through the first fourteen days of May, we’ve had 1.68 inches of rain, just 0.13 inches above average. The year to date precipitation stands at 10.76 inches of rain and melted snow, which is 2.28 inches shy of normal.
While it really hasn’t been terribly wet this month, we’ve only had two days with no precipitation at all. Five days have had just a trace of rain, two others a paltry 0.01 inches, and one more checked in at 0.02 inches. That means only four days in these first two weeks of May have really had any significant rain. We had a tenth of an inch on May 11, 0.13 inches on May 8, 0.53 inches on the first of the month, and 0.88 inches on May 6.
We are in our wet time of year. In a typical May, we receive 3.59 inches of rain, our third wettest month on average. Our wettest month on average is July, with 3.75 inches of rain, followed by June at 3.71 inches. March comes in fourth at 3.41 inches, with August fifth at 3.21 inches and April sixth with 3.15 inches.
E-mail your weather questions to weather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Kevin Carter .
MAY 12, 2009: LATE FROST
If it’s frost you want, then 36 degrees is the magic number. That may not make any sense at first, but as we blogged back on October 3, 2008, frost can form on the earth’s surface when the official temperature, taken about six feet above the ground, hits 36 degrees or colder.
So, since temperatures early Tuesday morning are expected to fall to around 36 degrees, frost is a distinct possibility, especially north of Interstate 70 where the National Weather Service has issued a frost advisory. This is getting to be a bit late for frost, but is really not out of the ordinary.
I reviewed the last ten years of weather data, and found that our last 36 degree reading in the spring has occurred in April five times and in May five times. The last two years were early, April 16 in 2008 and April 21 in 2007. The three previous years were late, all coming in May: May 23 in 2006, May 5 in 2005, and May 4 in 2004.
Then it was back and forth the previous five years; April 27 in 2003, May 22 in 2002, May 13 in 2001, April 28 in 2000, and April 26 in 1999. As the last ten years show, planting your garden too early can lead to some extra work covering those tender young plants in May about every other year. But at least we haven’t seen a frost as last as in 1972, when the temperature fell to a frosty 34 degrees on June 11!
E-mail your weather questions to weather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Kevin Carter .
MAY 7, 2009: VORTEX2 IS ABOUT TO START
VORTEX2 will hit the road from 10 May - 13 June 2009 and 1 May - 15 June 2010. What is VORTEX2? VORTEX2 is by far the largest and most ambitious effort ever made to understand tornadoes. They expect over 100 scientists and crew in up to 40 science and support vehicles to participate in this unique, fully nomadic, field program in May/June 2009-2010. The National Science Foundation (NSF) foundation and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Adminstration (NOAA) together are contributing over $10 million towards this effort. Participants will be drawn from several universities, and several government and private organizations, and will be international including members from Italy, Netherlands, United Kingdom, Canada and Australia.The results of this study will help answer some very difficult questions such as:- How, when, and why do tornadoes form? Why some are violent and long lasting while others are weak and short lived?- What is the structure of tornadoes? How strong are the winds near the ground? How exactly do they do damage?- How can we learn to forecast tornadoes better? Current warnings have an only 13 minute average lead time and a 70% false alarm rate. Can we make warnings more accurate? Can we warn 30, 45, 60 minutes ahead?VORTEX2 is fully nomadic with no home base. Scientists will roam from state to state following severe weather outbreaks through the Plains.You can track the findings of this project by visiting the VORTEX2 web site.Email your weather questions toweather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Jeff Oechslein.
MAY 6, 2009: EARLY HEAT
Remember those warm days last month? You know, when it seemed like summer, even though the calendar still said April? We had high temperatures of 80 degrees or above five days in a row from April 24 through April 28, including a record high of 87 degrees on April 25.
The last time we had five days in a row at or above 80 degrees was back at the start of September of last year. The highs for September 1 through September 5 were 85, 88, 88, 88, and 86. The first time we had five in a row that warm last year came in June. We actually went 9 days in a row with temperatures at or above 80 degrees from June 5 through June 13, including our only 90 degree days of last year on the 6th, 7th, and 9th.
Going back through the years, we find that our first five day or longer stretch of 80 degree days usually shows up in May or June. In 2007 it came on May 8 through May 12, and in 2006 it was May 27 through May 31. We had to wait until June 5 through June 14 in 2005, and then it was back to May 8 through May 14 in 2004. We really had to wait for the heat in 2003, when the first five days of 80 degree temperatures came on June 22 through June 26.
But then we come to 2002, and how soon we forget the past. That year our first five days of 80 degree or higher temperatures actually came sooner than this year by 9 days. We hit 81 on April 15, 2002, followed by a record high of 87 on the 16th. Highs of 85 on both the 17th and 18th and 84 on April 19 completed the streak.
E-mail your weather questions to weather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Kevin Carter .
MAY 2, 2009: DO RAINBOWS ONLY APPEAR WHEN ITS WARM?
Rainbows can appear in the sky at any time of the year because temperatures are not involved in their formation. Unfortunately, the sky conditions that are necessary to produce rainbows rarely occur during the coldest part of the year, and so we almost never see them in the period from November through February.A rainbow can form only when bright sunlight shines directly on raindrops and the observer is in the proper place to see it. But in the winter, the usual situation when it is raining is a gray, gloomy and solidly overcast sky with no direct sunlight. Breaks in the clouds that let sunlight shine directly onto raindrops usually occur only with showery rain such as thunderstorms, which are mainly warm-season weather events.Email your weather questions toweather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Jeff Oechslein.
MAY 1, 2009: APRIL SUMMARY
April started and ended with showers, but it had a little of everything else in between. We managed a record high, a record snowy day, and a couple of days with the threat of severe thunderstorms.
The average high temperature for the month was 62.7 degrees, about a half degree above average. This was helped by that record high of 87 degrees on April 25, which came during a five day stretch of days with high temperatures at 80 degrees or above. The average low came in at 41.4 degrees, about 2 degrees above average.
Precipitation was just a shade above average, with 3.19 inches recorded, compared to the average of 3.15 inches. The wettest day was April 20, when 0.79 inches of rain fell. We had snow on four days in April, but the only day when more than a trace fell was April 7, when we picked up a record 1.6 inches. That was enough snow to put us above the monthly average of 1.5 inches. Assuming we don’t pick up any more snow this season, we end up at 31.9 inches, well below our seasonal snow average of 40.6 inches.
Severe weather was hard to find this April, but we did have the far southern part of the area under a severe thunderstorm watch on April 5, and severe thunderstorm warnings were issued on April 24.
E-mail your weather questions to weather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Kevin Carter .
Greetings everyone and welcome to the Severe Weather Team 9 Weather Blog. If you have a passion for weather, you've come to the right place.We'll use this forum to discuss Ohio Valley weather in greater detail and answer as many weather questions as possible. You can send in your questions to weather@wtov.com.
NOVEMBER 3, 2009: A REALLY COOL MONTH
We did not have any snow in October, and we only set one record low temperature. However, last month still managed to be our coolest October since at least 1991.
Our average high temperature in October was 59 degrees, almost six degrees below the average of 64.7 degrees. The average low of 41.7 degrees was 1.6 degrees below the average of 43.3 degrees. The overall average temperature of 50.4 degrees last month was 3.6 degrees below average, making it our fourth cooler than average month out of the last five, and second in a row.
Last month was the coolest October since I arrived here in 1991, but judging by the National Weather Service records at Pittsburgh, this was likely our coldest October since 1988. Despite the overall chill, we only set one record low temperature, 28 degrees on October 19, which also was our coldest temperature of the month. The warmest reading last month was 75 degrees on October 30.
October is typically our driest month of the year, but this time around we were wetter than average. We received 3.16 inches of rain last month, 0.8 inches above average. This made October wetter than five other months this year (September, July, June, March, and February). The wettest day was October 15, with 0.46 inches of rain. Severe weather was hard to find, with severe thunderstorms in the area only on October 9.
E-mail your weather questions to weather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Kevin Carter .
OCTOBER 30, 2009: TRICK OR TREAT!
Showers are expected to pull out of the area by Saturday afternoon, so the current Trick or Treat Forecast is calling for a cloudy sky with a temperature of 50 degrees. That is 31 degrees colder than our warmest Halloween temperature on record!
I'm meteorologist Jeff Oechslein.
OCTOBER 28, 2009: ANOTHER WET FOOTBALL FRIDAY?
The fifth Friday evening of October is just around the corner. If it’s anything like the first four Fridays this month, you might want to get out the rain gear.
Our rain gauge has been busy on Fridays this month. Last week we picked up a half inch of rain, while we collected 0.08 inches two Fridays ago. The first two weeks of October were also wet on Friday, with 0.40 inches of rain on October 9 and 0.39 inches on October 2.
These wet football Friday October evenings are a switch from September. No measurable rain fell on any of the four Fridays last month, with only a trace of rain recorded on September 11. The rest all came in with no precipitation at all.
The football season kicked off for many on the last Friday of August, which was a wet day around here. We picked up 0.6 inches of rain that day, enough to prompt some flood advisories in the area. The computer models are mixed in their outlook for rain this Friday, but since it’s still October, the rain drops could be flying when the footballs fill the air!
E-mail your weather questions to weather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Kevin Carter .
OCTOBER 24, 2009: A WINTER WITHOUT SNOW IN MOSCOW?
That’s right. The mayor of Moscow, Yury Luzhkov, is promising a winter without snow. But how does he plan on making this work? The Russian Air Force will use cement powder, dry ice or silver iodide to spray the clouds from November to March — and only to prevent "very big and serious snow" from falling on the city so that still means a few flakes could slip through the cracks. Authorities say this would be a blessing for Moscow which is typically covered with a blanket of snow from November to March.
I'm meteorologist Kristin Walls.
OCTOBER 22, 2009: WOOLLY ANIMALS AND WEATHER
What is up with woolly animals and the weather? We already discussed the woolly bear caterpillar being a possible, but not all that likely, predictor of winter weather. I found something new on the woolly worms that suggest that these worms may be able to tell us something about the weather in the past but not in the future.Mike Peters, an entomologist at the University of Massachusetts, doesn't disagree, but he says there could, in fact, be a link between winter severity and the brown band of a woolly bear caterpillar. "There's evidence," he says, "that the number of brown hairs has to do with the age of the caterpillar—in other words, how late it got going in the spring. The [band] does say something about a heavy winter or an early spring. The only thing is . . . it's telling you about the previous year."Now lets transition from woolly worms to Wooly the Lamb. Who? Well according to the Museum of Television and Radio, Wooly Lamb happened to be the first to deliver a weather forecast on television. Wooly Lamb was a cartoon character who began each weather segment by looking skyward with a telescope, then facing viewers and singing:“Its hot, its cold. Its rain, its fair. It’s all mixed up together. But I, as Botany’s wooly lamb predict tomorrow’s weather.” Wooly Lamb made his first forecast 68 years ago on October 14, 1941 on New York City’s WNBC.Email your weather questions toweather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Jeff Oechslein.
OCTOBER 20, 2009: ORIONID METEOR SHOWER
The Orionid meteor shower, one of the biggest and brightest of the year, is at its peak tomorrow morning. While most annual meteor showers are pretty minor events for the casual observer, the Orionids are one of the two or three best in the year, especially as this year there will be no moon to interfere with seeing the fainter meteors. The Orionids, like most meteor showers, are caused by particles associated with a comet, in this case, the famous Halley's Comet. The Orionids typically produce about 15 to 20 meteors per hour at their peak, for skywatchers with dark skies and good weather. Urban and suburban residents will see far fewer, however, due to local light pollution.The best time to view the meteor shower is between 1 AM and dawn. The shower's maximum activity will occur at 6 a.m. EDT Wednesday, just before dawn in the Ohio Valley.Telescopes and binoculars are of no use, because meteors move too quickly. Be sure to dress warmly, as it will be chilly. A blanket and pillow or lounge chair allows comfortable positioning so you can look up for long stretches. Lie back and allow 15 minutes for your eyes to adjust to the darkness, then give the show at least a half hour to play out through spurts and lulls.Enjoy the Show!
I'm meteorologist Kristin Walls.
OCTOBER 20, 2009: YET ANOTHER WINTER PREDICTION
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released their winter outlook last week.
I'm meteorologist Jeff Oechslein.
OCTOBER 18, 2009: TASTE OF AN INDIAN SUMMER
After the past week with temperatures well below normal, it seemed we already jumped right into the winter season. Temperatures by the end of the week dropped to 39 degrees F, which was 25 degrees below normal. Typically average temperatures this time of the year are around 64 degrees F. The good news is this weather pattern is about to take a turn for the good.We first have to take one more hit with freezing temperatures. The National Weather Service issued a freeze warning that is widespread for tomorrow morning. Unfortunately this means a likely end to the growing season. Temperatures are expected to drop into the upper 20’s to around 30 degrees F overnight. But once we get through this freezing night, temperatures start climbing.We start the work week off with temperatures in the upper 50’s to lower 60’s. By mid-week, temperatures will climb into the upper 60’s with the possibility of reaching 70 degrees by Thursday. These warm temperatures will feel like summer is back especially after a cold and gloomy past week.Email your weather questions toweather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Kristin Walls.
OCTOBER 15, 2009: ALREADY TIRED OF THE COLD AND DAMP WEATHER? TAKE A VIRTUAL VISIT TO CALIFORNIA
Is this the middle of October? It feels like the middle of December! Today’s high temperature in the lower 40’s is a little more typical of what you would see on December 8th. On Friday and Saturday the forecast is calling for a high temperature of 39 degrees which happens to be the average high temperature for December 20th!If all this cold, damp dreary weather is bringing you down take a visit to sunny California. My wife and I, along with a group of folks right here in the Ohio Valley recently returned from a dream California vacation. The weather was sunny all the way from San Francisco to Los Angeles. Check out some of the pictures we took: Jeff’s Trip to California..
Email your weather questions toweather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Jeff Oechslein.
OCTOBER 13, 2009: ARE YOU READY FOR SOME SNOW?
Snow is in the forecast, if not the air. Well, at least the threat of some snow. Or at the very least, the threat of some wet snowflakes mixed in with some very cold rain over the next few days.
Snow this time of year is not out of the question, but it is early. Our earliest autumn snow on record was on October 4, 1959, when 0.3 inches fell. More recently we had a trace of snow on both October 7, 2000 and October 12, 2006. The next earliest October snow was a trace on October 18, 1992, so if we do manage to get any snow before Sunday, it would be our fourth earliest snow on record.
Last year’s first snow came on October 28, when a trace fell. We had to wait until November 17 before our first measurable snow of 0.4 inches was recorded. In 2007, the first trace of snow waited until November 6, and the first measurable snow did not come until a half inch fell on December 3.
I noted above that we had a trace of snow on the early date of October 12, 2006. That did not mean a snowy fall or early winter was coming, as we had to wait all the way until January 9, 2007 for our first measurable snow of 0.3 inches to fall. Time will tell how snowy this upcoming winter will be.
E-mail your weather questions to weather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Kevin Carter .
OCTOBER 8, 2009: TRACKING THE CHANCES OF RAIN
Hopefully you’ve noticed that your Severe Weather Team 9 meteorologists put a probability of precipitation (POP) estimate (in multiples of 10%) for each day in our five day forecasts. I took a look at how accurate my estimate has been for the first day of the five day forecast. I checked my predictions against the actual amount of precipitation recorded by the Filtration Plant in Steubenville for the next day. I considered any day with at least 0.01 inches of precipitation as a wet day, and days with a trace or no precipitation as a dry day.
I looked at my last 63 forecasts, dating back into the middle of June. Over these past weeks, I used every multiple of 10% except for 100% (which ironically enough I used tonight for the expected heavy rains on Friday). The most common POP used was 50% with 12, followed by 10% with 11. Other commonly used POP’s were 20% and 30% at 9 each, while the 0% and 80% POP’s were only used twice.
It did not rain on either of the two 0% POP days, and all 11 of the 10% POP days were dry as well. Rain fell on two of the nine 20% POP days and on two of the nine 30% POP days as well, which works out to 22%. So, for the lower range of the POP’s, the forecasts were very close to what actually happened.
The higher POP days were not so clear cut. It rained on three of the five 40% POP days, which works out to 60%, and ten of the twelve 50% days were wet as well, coming in at 83%. Only one of the two 80% days had rain, a 50% rate of wet weather. It rained on all three of the 90% days and all five of both the 60% and 70% days, so those all checked in at a 100% rate of rain. I’ll revisit this subject at a later date to see how the POP’s are working out.
E-mail your weather questions to weather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Kevin Carter .
OCTOBER 7, 2009: CAN WOOLLY WORMS FORECAST WINTER WEATHER?
While cutting the grass the other day I noticed a woolly worm. Folklore has it that these guys are really miniature weather forecasters. Careful observation of these short, fuzzy caterpillars in the fall supposedly can tell you what kind of weather the coming winter will hold.The woolly worms of winter weather forecasting fame are black at each end with a reddish brown band in the middle. The size of the brown band is said to be an indicator of winter's severity. The narrower the band, the harsher the winter. If woolly worms are more brown than black and the middle band tends toward orange, that indicates the winter will be mild.Well, that's a fun bit of folk wisdom, but it's simply not true. The experts at the West Virginia University Extension Service say there is no scientific evidence suggesting that woolly worms can predict the weather. The West Virginia University scientists say variations in their bands are linked to differences in species and larval stage, not the weather.So, woolly worms cannot be counted on to provide a peek at what the coming winter holds. Still, this fall's woolly worms will become next spring's moths and that in itself is pretty amazing.Email your weather questions toweather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Jeff Oechslein.
OCTOBER 4, 2009: Orion’s Constellation – Best Viewing Times
Orion is one of the largest and most recognizable constellations in the sky. The constellation includes the Belt of Orion which is three bright stars in a row. Surrounding the belt at roughly similar distances are four bright stars, which are considered to represent the outline of the hunter's body.
February 1 -- 3:30 PM to 2:30 AM
March 1 -- 1:30 PM to 12:30 AM
April 1 -- 11:30 AM to 10:30 PM
May 1 -- 9:30 AM to 8:30 PM
June 1 -- 7:30 AM to 6:30 PM
July 1 -- 5:30 AM to 4:30 PM
August 1 -- 3:30 AM to 2:30 PM
September 1 -- 1:30 AM to 12:30 PM
October 1 -- 11:30 PM to 10:30 AM
November 1 -- 9:30 PM to 8:30 AM
December 1 -- 7:30 PM to 6:30 AM
As you can see, Orion's belt is above the horizon about 11 hours a day, but some of these times are in daylight! You can't see stars during the day, so that's why the belt is not always visible.The numbers above show that the times move back about 2 hours a month. In early September, you can see the belt in the wee hours of the morning. Each month, the times get earlier. Around December, the belt is visible for most of the night. Towards spring, the belt is visible in the evening but not in the morning hours. Around early May, we get to the point where the belt is not visible at all because it is up only during daylight or twilight. In mid-June, the sun is very close to the constellation Orion; whenever the belt is above the horizon in June, the sun is also up, so you can't see it at all this time of year.Email your weather questions toweather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Kristin Walls.
OCTOBER 1, 2009: SEPTEMBER’S GONE AND PROBABLY FORGOTTEN
There was not much to note weather-wise about the past month. Our highest temperature was 83 degrees on September 6, and our coolest reading was 42 degrees during the last minute of the last day of the month. We did not set any record highs or lows, with the average high for the month of 73.4 degrees nearly two and a half degrees below normal. The average low of 55.9 degrees was just over a degree above normal.
This trend of cooler than average high temperatures has now reached four months in a row, and the average high five months ago was right on normal. January’s average high was also cooler than normal, while the average high temperatures in February, March, and April were all above normal.
Not only did September as a whole come in cooler than average, but it was also drier than average as well. We received 2.12 inches of rain last month, 0.85 inches below normal. The month started really dry, with measurable rain on only two of the first nineteen days of the month. We made up for that a bit with measurable rain on nine of the last ten days of the month. At month’s end, we had received 26.42 inches of rain and melted snow, compared to the year to date average of 28.72 inches.
The wettest day of the month was September 27 with 0.57 inches of rain, followed by 0.55 inches on September 8. Severe weather was hard to find, with a couple of days with flood watches issued (September 7 and 26), along with one day with both a wind advisory and a severe thunderstorm warning (September 28).
E-mail your weather questions to weather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Kevin Carter .
SEPTEMBER 28, 2009: THE HEAT IS GONE
Chances are we won’t see any more hot days this year. For some folks, that’s a sad thing to hear, but for others, bring on the cool weather! Certainly the next two days will be very cool, with daytime temperatures more appropriate for November than the end of September.
We only had three 90 degree days this year, the same as last year. There is very little chance of hitting 90 degrees from here on out. The latest we ever hit 90 degrees was in 1949, when it was 91 degrees on October 10. For every other day in October, the record high is below 90 degrees.
Forget about 90 degrees, what about 80? Over the past five years, we have managed to reach 80 degrees or above 13 times after October 1. But it’s generally a hit or miss kind of thing. Last year we hit 81 on October 12. In 2006 and 2004, we never warmed up to 80 degrees after October 1.
But in 2007, we heated up to 80 degrees or higher seven times, including six in a row from October 4 through October 9. That stretch included 88 degrees twice, 87 once, and 86 degrees twice. It was also toasty in October, 2005, with five days at or above 80 degrees.
E-mail your weather questions to weather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Kevin Carter .
SEPTEMBER 22, 2009: HAPPY AUTUMNAL EQUINOX
Today is a date that most of us recognize as symbolic of changing seasons. As we welcome fall, people south of the equator are actually gearing up for spring.What Happens at the Equinox?Far from being an arbitrary indicator of the changing seasons, today is significant for astronomical reasons. On September 22nd, at precisely 5:18 PM EDT, the Sun will cross directly over the Earth's equator. This moment is known as the autumnal equinox in the Northern Hemisphere. For the Southern Hemisphere, this is the moment of the vernal equinox.Equinox Means "Equal Night"Translated literally, equinox means "equal night." Because the sun is positioned above the equator, day and night are about equal in length all over the world during the equinoxes.Reasons for the SeasonsThese brief but monumental moments owe their significance to the 23.4 degree tilt of the Earth's axis. Because of the tilt, we receive the Sun's rays most directly in the summer. In the winter, when we are tilted away from the Sun, the rays pass through the atmosphere at a greater slant, bringing lower temperatures. If the Earth rotated on an axis perpendicular to the plane of the Earth's orbit around the Sun, there would be no variation in day lengths or temperatures throughout the year, and we would not have seasons.Email your weather questions toweather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Jeff Oechslein.
SEPTEMBER 18, 2009: FRANCES AND IVAN HAD COMPANY
Five years ago this month, the Ohio Valley was hammered not once but twice by the remains of tropical systems. The moisture from Frances dropped 4.37 inches of rain on us September 8 and 9, followed by 5.49 inches of rain from Ivan on September 17 and 18. This caused widespread flooding and helped make September 2004 our wettest September and third wettest month on record.
Since the year 2002, five other tropical systems have produced notable impacts on our weather. The most recent came last September, and it did not involve rain. The remnants of Ike blasted the area with wind gusts of up to 81 miles per hour as it moved through the Ohio Valley, causing widespread damage. Also last year, the remains of Fay brought 1.32 inches of rain on August 27 and 28.
We were spared any direct impact from the tropics in 2007 and 2006, but on August 29 through August 31, 2005, we were soaked by moisture from Katrina to the tune of 3.62 inches of rain. We already discussed what happened in 2004 from Frances and Ivan, but another September visitor came from the tropics in 2003. This would be Isabel, which brought 1.70 inches of rain September 18 and 19.
The “I” storm caught us again in 2002, and again it happened in September. Isidore produced 2.83 inches of rain for us on September 26 and 27. Thus, seven tropical systems have produced major rain or wind impacts on the Ohio Valley over the last eight years, with two of these systems hitting in August and five in September.
E-mail your weather questions to weather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Kevin Carter .
SEPTEMBER 17, 2009: IVAN FIVE YEARS LATER
I'm meteorologist Jeff Oechslein.
SEPTEMBER 16, 2009: HOW DOES WEATHER AFFECT AUTUMN COLOR?
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I'm meteorologist Jeff Oechslein.
SEPTEMBER 15, 2009: OUT OF THIS WORLD
I'm meteorologist Jeff Oechslein.
SEPTEMBER 7, 2009: AUGUST FELT MORE LIKE SUMMER
It wasn’t our warmest month of all time, but August did manage to feel more like summer, especially compared to July and June. High temperatures last month averaged 81 degrees, about three degrees warmer than both June and July, but still nearly a degree below average. Low temperatures came in just shy of 63 degrees, again the warmest of the year and actually a degree and a half above average. Thus, for the month as a whole, August was a bit warmer than average.
August also featured our first three 90 degree days of the year. The hottest day was August 17, when we hit 91 degrees. We reached 90 degrees on both August 9 and August 16. These were our first 90 degree days since June 6, 8, and 9 of last year which all had highs of 90 degrees, our only three 90 degree days of 2008.
August ended up being a wetter than average month. We received 5.26 inches of rain last month, more than two inches above average and our wettest month of the year so far. We received more than an inch of rain twice in August, an inch and a half on August 10 and 1.02 inches on August 20. At month’s end, our precipitation was about an inch and a half below average at 24.3 inches.
Severe weather was not a real concern in August. We experienced two days with severe thunderstorms (August 10 and August 20), and two days with flooding of creeks and streams (August 19 and August 28) in the area.
E-mail your weather questions to weather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Kevin Carter .
SEPTEMBER 1, 2009: FARMERS ALMANAC MAKES WINTER PREDICTION
Welcome to the start of meteorological autumn and it sure felt like a new season this morning with temperatures flirting with record low temperatures in the middle to upper 40’s. Fall begins on your calendar and astronomically on September 22nd, we call this the Autumnal Equinox.For those of us who would like to look ahead right past fall and into what winter might hold I give to you this years prediction from the Farmers’ Almanac. According to the 2010 Farmers’ Almanac, this winter will see more days of shivery conditions: a winter during which temperatures will average below normal for about three-quarters of the nation.
I'm meteorologist Jeff Oechslein.
AUGUST 31, 2009: NAO & TEMPERATURE: COULD THERE BE A CORRELATION?
I'm meteorologist Kristin Walls.
AUGUST 26, 2009: SMOKEY THE BEAR PHOTO CONTEST
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I'm meteorologist Jeff Oechslein.
AUGUST 24, 2009: NAME THOSE CLOUDS
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I'm meteorologist Jeff Oechslein.
AUGUST 20, 2009: SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY
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Email your weather questions toweather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Jeff Oechslein.
AUGUST 18, 2009: TROPICS GET ACTIVE AFTER A SLOW START
Tropical Storm Ana developed on August 15th, this marked the latest start to a season since 1992 when Hurricane Andrew was named on August the 17th. By the way the latest starting season was 1967 when Arlene was named on August 30.Hurricane Bill, the first hurricane of the 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season, is expected to continue to strengthen and become a major hurricane by the middle of the week.Bill is currently churning over the open waters of the Atlantic, approximately 865 miles east of the Lesser Antilles, packing winds of 100 mph. Hurricane Bill is forecast to become the first major hurricane of 2009. Winds could top out higher than 130 mph, making it a Category 4 hurricane by the end of the week.Thankfully for the United States a cold front and associated upper air trough of low pressure will help steer Hurricane Bill out to sea by the weekend. This will keep the hurricane over open waters, possibly impacting Bermuda, but not the United States.Yesterday Tropical Storm Claudette made landfall along the Panhandle of Florida. Some of the leftover moisture from that system will be drawn northward into the Ohio Valley in the form of showers and thunderstorms.Email your weather questions toweather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Jeff Oechslein.
AUGUST 13, 2009: WAITING ON THE TROPICS
It has been a long time since August 13 passed without a tropical storm or hurricane in the Atlantic Ocean basin, but so far this year this part of the tropics has been quiet. You have to go all the way back to 1984 to find a slower start to the Atlantic tropical storm and hurricane season. In every year since then, there has been at least one subtropical or tropical storm or hurricane in the Atlantic basin by August 13.
Recent years have been particularly active by now. Last year 5 systems had developed by now, and there had been four storms or hurricanes by August 13 in 2007 and 2006. The Atlantic was really boiling in 2005, with nine storms or hurricanes by now, and both 2004 and 2003 had four systems by this time.
The National Weather Service (NWS) now predicts a below average Atlantic tropical storm and hurricane season, due mainly to increased wind shear in the tropics from El Nino. The NWS is predicting 7 to 11 named storms this season in the Atlantic basin, with 3 to 6 of them becoming hurricanes. So, despite the slow start, there is still plenty of time for the Atlantic basin to become active before the season winds down in the fall.
E-mail your weather questions to weather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Kevin Carter .
AUGUST 11, 2009: JULY TEMPERATURE BELOW AVERAGE FOR MUCH OF THE UNITED STATES
I'm meteorologist Jeff Oechslein.
AUGUST 6, 2009: THAT’S A LOT OF WEATHER FORECASTS!
The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) recently took a survey on how often and from where adult Americans get weather forecasts. According to the data from the survey, Americans receive some 300 billion weather forecasts each year!
About 9 out of 10 adult Americans surveyed obtain weather forecasts on a daily basis, with the average survey participant checking the weather forecast nearly four times per day. The survey revealed that most people are satisfied with the weather forecasts and have a fairly high confidence in forecasts that cover the next two days.
The NCAR researchers also asked survey respondents to put a value on what they believed the forecasts were worth. The survey respondents placed an average value of 10.5 cents per forecast received, which equates to an annual value of 31.5 billion dollars for the weather forecasts. The researchers estimated that the annual cost of making these forecasts by various government and private weather forecasters is 5.1 billion dollars.
According to the survey, the most common source for weather forecasts is local television stations, followed by cable television and radio, with web pages and newspapers bringing up the rear. The peak times for receiving weather forecasts are the early morning, early evening, and late evening.
E-mail your weather questions to weather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Kevin Carter .
AUGUST 5, 2009: WEATHER AND AGRICULTURE: FARMERS HOPE FOR DRIER WEATHER
Farmers are at the mercy of weather patterns and July was no exception. Last month was certainly an odd month with cooler than average temperatures prevailing for most of the period, but the weather was also pretty streaky as far as rainfall goes.The first three days of the month recorded some light rainfall but after that Mother Nature shut off the moisture. July 4th - 16th produced no measurable rainfall and the quality of the local crops started to decline. Because of the economic recession the prices for selling grain are at or below the cost of production, meaning a poor crop could result in a net loss profit-wise for the year.The rains finally came with July 17th – July 31st having only 2 completely dry days. Although we desperately needed the moisture, the unsettled weather pattern still has yet to exit the region which has caused a new set of problems for the local farmers.The photo directly below is of an alfalfa field in Southwestern Pennsylvania. It shows two problems that can be attributed to the unsettled weather pattern we’ve been experiencing the past two and a half weeks.
I'm Severe Weather Team 9 intern David Kraeer.
AUGUST 1, 2009: THE COOLEST JULY OF ALL
It’s official. This July was our coolest on record, with an average temperature of 69.1 degrees. The previous coolest July was in 2000, when our average temperature was 69.2 degrees.
High temperatures in July were particularly cool compared to average, coming in 5.4 degrees below normal at 78.2 degrees. Low temperatures averaged 60.1 degrees for the month, 3.3 degrees below normal. Our coolest temperature of the month was 50 degrees, which set a record low for July 14. We still have not hit 90 degrees this year, but we came close on July 16 with the month’s warmest temperature of 88 degrees.
July started dry, but the rains came more often the second half of the month. While many parts of the region ended up wetter than normal, our official rain gauge recorded 3.1 inches of rain in July. This was 0.65 inches below average, and helped push our year to date precipitation deficit to 3.5 inches.
It was a rather quiet month for severe weather, with only one severe thunderstorm day (July 21) and one day with flood watches issued (July 31).
E-mail your weather questions to weather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Kevin Carter .
JULY 30, 2009: COOLEST JULY ON RECORD?
I'm meteorologist Jeff Oechslein.
JULY 28, 2009: Could Shark Teeth Help Scientists Learn about Earth’s Past Climate?
Chattanooga, Tenn. (July 27, 2009) – Cameras flash almost every time a big, toothy shark passes in front of visitors through the viewing windows at the Tennessee Aquarium. But guests might not realize that the snaggle-toothed grin of the sand tiger shark could help give scientists a snapshot of what Earth’s climate was like eons ago.Researchers have discovered that the chemical composition of sharks’ teeth is strongly influenced by water temperature. Certain bonds develop differently in cold water compared to warm water. UCLA’s Dr. Aradhna Tripati and CalTech’s Dr Robert Eagle are attempting to calibrate the carbonate “clumped isotope” thermometer using shark teeth collected in controlled environments like the Tennessee Aquarium. “Initial experiments with shark teeth from different aquarium temperatures show that we can measure the temperature at which the fish lived, to within 1-2oC” Dr. Eagle said. “Our work with the Tennessee Aquarium will allow us to go on and examine the water temperatures in which extinct sharks lived from fossil teeth, even millions of years back in time. We also intend to go on and use this technique to investigate the body temperatures of extinct organisms of unknown physiology, such as dinosaurs. ”Recently, volunteer divers began collecting teeth inside the Aquarium’s Secret Reef exhibit for this study. No dental instruments were required however. Volunteer divers simply used their sharp eyes to collect nearly 100 teeth on the bottom of the exhibit that the sharks had lost.Sandbar and sand tiger sharks lose teeth almost daily according to senior aquarist Rob Mottice. “Most sharks have seven rows of teeth in each jaw,” Mottice said. “And since they lose a tooth from the front row every 10-14 days, they will literally generate thousands of teeth in their lifetime to replace the lost ones.”The teeth collected in the Secret Reef will give the scientists a control group of samples from 78 degree water. These will be examined along with shark teeth collected from other Aquariums. “The London Aquarium has offered us teeth at 75 deg. F, and the Monterey Bay Aquarium has offered us some teeth from a tank that is at 65 deg. F,” Dr. Tripati said.While these researchers are sinking their teeth into solving climate mysteries that may be locked in enamel, the Tennessee Aquarium is hoping everyone sees sharks in a new light because of this project and other knowledge gained about these apex predators.Email your weather questions toweather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Jeff Oechslein.
JULY 21, 2009: IT’S ALL DOWN HILL FROM HERE
Today, the 21st of July, marks the beginning of the end. The beginning of the end of what is supposed to be the warmest time of the year, that is.
Our average high today is 85 degrees, and the average low is 65 degrees. Tomorrow, the average high falls a degree to 84. On Friday, the 24th of July, the average low drops to 64 degrees. You know where this is going . . . all the way down to an average high of 34 degrees and an average low of 18 degrees on January 9.
In many years, some of us are looking forward to those cooler temperatures. But not so much this year, considering how cool it has been for July. We are three weeks into the month, and we are on pace for our coolest July in at least 18 years. So far this month, our average high temperature is 77.6 degrees, and our average low is 58.4 degrees. This puts us about 5.5 degrees below average for the month.
Our coolest July in recent years was the year 2000, when we were 4.2 degrees cooler than average. The last couple of years have also been cool in July, with temperatures about a degree cooler than average last year, and three degrees shy of average in 2007. If we don’t warm up over the last ten days of July, this will be our coolest month compared to average since February 2007, when we shivered through temperatures 8.4 degrees below average.
E-mail your weather questions to weather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Kevin Carter .
JULY 14, 2009: IT SURE HASN’T FELT LIKE JULY
About a week ago I detailed how cool this summer started. Our weather really hasn’t changed since then. We are now two weeks into the month of July, and we’ve had more days with highs in the 70’s and 60’s (8) than in the 80’s (6).
We still haven’t had a high temperature above average this month, with only one high (84 degrees on July 10) matching the normal for the date. Low temperatures are just about as chilly, with one low right at average (63 degrees on July 12) and one low above average ( a balmy 68 degrees on July 11). The rest of the nights this month have been cooler than average.
When you add it all up, temperatures for the first two weeks of July are running 5.2 degrees below average. The only day that came in above average was July 11, when the high of 82 and that warm low of 68 averaged 1.5 degrees above normal. Highs in July have averaged 77.3 degrees, and lows have averaged 57.9 degrees. This is closer to what we typically have in either (take your pick) early June or the middle of September.
An even bigger story is how dry it has been. We received only 0.31 inches of rain over the first 14 days in July, well below the average of 1.75 inches for the first two weeks of the month. All of this rain came during the first three days of the month, with only a trace of rain recorded during the last 11 days. July is on average our wettest month, with a normal rainfall of 3.75 inches. If things don’t change, we could end up threatening the record low July rainfall total of 0.85 inches set in 2002.
E-mail your weather questions to weather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Kevin Carter .
JULY 7, 2009: A COOL START TO SUMMER
It’s only the first 17 days of summer, I mean, that’s only two and a half weeks. But from the first day of summer back on June 21 through July 7, it has been on the cool side. It was especially cool the last few days of June and this first week of July, which of course included the big summer holiday weekend covering Independence Day.
Since summer started, our average high has been 78.5 degrees. This is about three and a half degrees cooler than average. We did have one warm stretch, hitting at least 83 degrees from June 22 through June 26, and we even made a run towards 90 degrees, falling just short at 89 degrees on June 25.
However, since June 27, we have not been warmer than 80 degrees, and we suffered through a five day period from June 30 through July 4 without even reaching 75 degrees. This included an abnormally cool high of 68 degrees on July 2.
The nights have been chilly as well, coming in at 59.2 degrees since the first day of summer. This is a couple degrees cooler than average. We really have not had a warm and muggy night yet this summer, with our highest lows coming in at 64 degrees on June 21 and June 26. Some of the nights have felt a lot like spring, with lows as cool as 55 degrees on July 6.
E-mail your weather questions to weather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Kevin Carter .
JULY 6, 2009: TOO COOL FOR THE SWIMMING POOL?
I'm Severe Weather Team 9 intern David Kraeer.
JULY 1, 2009: WHERE DID JUNE GO?
It’s already July! June is in the books, and it certainly was not a hot month. Our 89 degree high on June 25 was the closest we’ve been to 90 degrees so far this year. The monthly average high temperature of 78.1 degrees was nearly two degrees below the normal June average high temperature of 79.8 degrees.
Low temperatures came in right at the expected value of 58.2 degrees last month, so I guess only the days were cooler than usual. Our coolest night came right at the start of the month, with a low of 44 degrees on June 1. We did not set any record highs or lows during the month.
There were some very wet and stormy days in June, but not everyone shared in the heavy rains. Our rain gauge recorded 2.16 inches of precipitation, well below the average of 3.71 inches. The year to date total through June 30 stood at 15.94 inches of rain and melted snow, 2.85 inches below the average of 18.79 inches.
As for those stormy days, we had eight days with severe thunderstorms in the area and five days with flooding rains. The most severe weather came on June 17, when the area was under ten tornado warnings, fourteen severe thunderstorm warnings, and nine flood warnings.
E-mail your weather questions to weather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Kevin Carter .
JUNE 30, 2009: PAST INDEPENDENCE DAY WEATHER
Rain on Independence Day is almost just a common around here as fireworks! Since the year 2000 there has only been one year in which it did not rain on Uncle Sam’s birthday, and that year was 2005. You would think the odds are in our favor of having a dry holiday to even things out a little this decade. The early forecast for the Fourth of July is for a mix of sun and clouds with high temperatures in the upper 70’s.
Email your weather questions toweather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Jeff Oechslein.
JUNE 29, 2009: UNSETTLED WEATHER MOVING IN
An upper level low will move into the area Monday night into Tuesday, bringing with it unseasonably cool temperatures and scattered rain showers that will last through Thursday.
I'm Severe Weather Team 9 intern David Kraeer.
JUNE 25, 2009: SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
A cold front will slice into sizzling heat and humidity to ignite intense thunderstorms later today towards evening.
Winds aloft are not very supportive of thunderstorm development however, the air at the surface is very juicy with dew points in the upper 60’s and air temperatures in the upper 80’s. Because of this we are included in a SLIGHT risk for severe weather. A slight risk for severe weather means well-organized storms are expected to form, but should be small in numbers.The strongest thunderstorms will be capable of producing damaging winds, hail and blinding downpours.Help contribute to Severe Weather Team 9 by emailing any storm reports, rainfall amounts, or digital pictures toweather@wtov.com.
I'm Severe Weather Team 9 intern David Kraeer.
JUNE 24, 2009: HEATING UP
Way back on April 25, we had a high temperature of 87 degrees. That’s still our warmest temperature of the year so far, even though two months have passed! We have a real shot of getting close to 90 degrees on Thursday, so perhaps we’ll have a new high for the year.
Last year we hit 90 degrees three times, and all of those came before summer actually started. It was 90 on June 6, June 8, and June 9, and after that, we never made it above the 89 degree reading reached on August 24. The last time we hit 90 degrees during the actual summer season was on September 6, 2007, when we reached 91 degrees.
Over the last 17 years, we’ve averaged about nine 90 degrees days each year. Hot days came in bunches in 2007 (15 days), 2006 (11 days), and 2005 (17 days), but we never reached 90 degrees during 2004 and 2003. The most 90 degree days in recent years came just before that two year cool spell, when we reached 90 degrees 23 days in 2002.
E-mail your weather questions to weather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Kevin Carter .
JUNE 23, 2009: LIGHTNING SAFETY AWARENESS WEEK: LIGHTNING MYTHS BUSTED
Have you ever heard the phrase, "Lightning never strikes twice"? That's actually not true. Lightning often strikes the same place numerous times. For example, the Empire State Building averages 25 lightning strikes a year. On average, every commercial jet in the U.S. is struck by lightning once a year.Believe it or not, the tires on your car do not protect you from a lightning strike. Lightning bolts have been known to measure up to 100 million volts. Two inches of rubber around your tires are not enough to stop the flow of electricity from the lightning bolt to the ground. It's actually the metal roof and sides that safely conduct electricity around you. Therefore, vehicles that are open, such as motorcycles, convertibles and bicycles, are not protected from lightning.The inside of your house isn't completely safe either. Some of the wires that supply your house come from outside and conduct electricity. Your landline phone is the best example of this. It is dangerous to talk on a corded phone during a thunderstorm. However, your cell phone is completely safe from lightning. Although unlikely, it is possible that you can be electrocuted in the shower by lightning that has traveled through your water pipes.There is good news. Metal does not attract lightning. Instead, lightning usually strikes tall and pointy structures. So wearing watches, earrings, bracelets or rings do not make you more likely to be struck by lightning.When you hear thunder, it's always best to get indoors. Don't wait until it starts to rain before you seek shelter. Lightning has been known to strike 10 to 15 miles away from the actual thunderstorm. In fact, in extreme cases, lightning has struck 100 miles from the thunderstorm.Stay safe out there and remember, "When thunder roars, get indoors."Email you questions toweather@wtov.com.
I'm Severe Weather Team 9 intern David Kraeer.
JUNE 22, LIGHTNING SAFETY AWARENESS WEEK
The week of June 21st through June 27th has been declared Lightning Safety Awareness Week. It is important to be prepared for thunderstorms and lightning. Each year about one thousand people are struck by lightning in the United States. Lightning kills between 60 and 70 people each year. So far 15 people have been killed this year in the United States from lightning strikes. If you hear thunder you are close enough to lightning, so when thunder roars, go indoors!There is an average of 25 million cloud to ground lightning strikes every year in the nation. The air near a lightning strike is hotter than the surface of the sun! So exactly why do we have lightning? Within thunderstorms there are tremendous amounts of air rising and sinking rapidly. At the top of the thundercloud it is very cold and some of the precipitation is frozen. The interaction of the liquid and frozen precipitation results in a buildup of electrical charge. The charge within the storm builds up to the point that a spark ignites. So lightning is nature’s way of equalizing the electrical charge within thunderstorms and between the thunderstorm and the ground.Email your weather questions toweather@wtov.com.I'm meteorologist Jeff Oechslein.
JUNE 18, 2009: MORE SEVERE WEATHER ON THE WAY
Wednesday was certainly the most active day of weather we’ve seen so far this year. Friday is shaping up to be more of the same.
The National Weather Service uses three risk categories (slight, moderate, and high) to show how numerous and strong they expect the impending severe weather to be. Our area is included within the MODERATE risk circle. A moderate risk means there will be the potential for stronger and more numerous storms than with the slight risk. Wednesday’s outlook called for a slight risk of severe weather, so Friday’s weather has the potential to be just as active, if not more. It’s very rare for our area to have a moderate risk of severe weather.
Help contribute to Severe Weather Team 9 by emailing your rainfall amounts and digital pictures toweather@wtov.com.
I'm Severe Weather Team 9 intern David Kraeer.
JUNE 16, 2009: HEAVY RAIN IN THE FORECAST
Our stretch of dry weather is about to come to an abrupt end. Rain is likely starting later tonight and continuing through Wednesday. Futurecast shows much of the area picking upwards of an inch of rain.
This could be the start of a soggy and stormy stretch as there are daily chances for rain through at least the first half of the weekend.Help contribute to Severe Weather Team 9 by emailing your rainfall amounts toweather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Jeff Oechslein.
JUNE 12, 2009: HOW WEATHER IMPACTED D-DAY
I received an email from Steve Wells who wanted to know if weather effected history and specifically battles in wars. The quick answer is yes and almost every battle throughout history has been altered in some way by weather conditions. I figured we could take a look at how weather came into the planning of D-Day since the 65 year anniversary has just recently passed.On the gray dawn of Monday, June 5th, 1944, rain slashed into the German bunkers and large waves pounded the beaches of France. This was the morning originally chosen for the Allied invasion of Europe, but the Allies postponed the invasion by 24 hours. This decision saved the Allied forces from certain destruction in the English Channel.Six forecasters working in three different teams were responsible for the D-Day forecasts. Their forecast was overly optimistic and the British Admiralty and the British Meteorological Office urged delay. They were aided by the brilliant Norwegian theoretician Sverre Petterssen who used high altitude observations in his forecasts.In the early hours of June 5th, under stormy skies of England, the forecasters advised General Eisenhower that a very short break in the weather a day later would allow the invasion to go ahead. On Tuesday, June 6th, under barely tolerable conditions, the largest amphibious landing force ever put together landed on the beaches of Normandy.Ironically the German meteorologists were aware of new storms moving in from the North Atlantic, but they had decided that the weather would be too bad to permit an invasion attempt. The Germans were caught completely off guard. Their high command had relaxed and many officers were on leave; their airplanes were grounded; their naval vessels absent. This marked the beginning of the end of the war in Europe and it depended on what were arguably the three most critical forecasts in history -- two successful ones by the Allies and one failure by the Germans.Courtesy of the Weather Notebook.Email your weather questions toweather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Jeff Oechslein.
JUNE 8, 2009: FIRST KNOWN PHOTOGRAPH OF A TORNADO
This is a picture of the first tornado to be photographed. The photo was taken in Howard, South Dakota on August 28, 1884!
Email your weather questions toweather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Jeff Oechslein.
JUNE 4, 2009: HOW DOES LIGHTNING AFFECT AIRPLANES?
According to Scientific American it is estimated that on average every commercial airplane in the United Sates gets struck by lightning. That may sound alarming to some especially after the events of earlier this week concerning the Air France crash off the coast of Brazil.It is not determined what caused the mysterious crash but according to satellite data thunderstorms were in the planes flight path. There were even estimates of 100 mph updrafts in these storms. Bill Waldock, an air-crash expert at Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University in Prescott, Arizona suspects that the weather caused some kind of violent incident. Waldock suspects the 100-mph winds the airplane apparently encountered could have gotten underneath the wings and shaken the plane. "If they hit a 100-mph updraft while they were going 525 mph, it would have thrown them violently," Waldock said. "It's way beyond what the airplane is designed to accept."So lightning may have not come into play with this disaster but in 1967 lightning caused a fuel tank explosion on a commercial airplane. This is the last known commercial plane crash due to lightning. Since that time much has been gained on how lightning affects airplanes and as a result the airplanes are equipped to handle a lightning strike.The outside of airplanes are made of aluminum which is a good conductor of electricity so if a plane is struck by lighting the charge will flow around the outside shell of the plane without affecting the inside.Email your weather questions toweather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Jeff Oechslein.
JUNE 1, 2009: A LOOK BACK AT MAY
If you try to grow anything outdoors, you know we need rain to keep the plants growing. The month of May certainly filled the bill and the rain gauges in that regard. We picked up 4.7 inches of rain in May, more than an inch above average. We are still a bit drier than average for the year to date, with 13.78 inches of rain and melted snow through the end of May, compared to the average of 15.08 inches.
The wettest day in May was May 24, when 1.95 inches of rain was recorded. This was out wettest day since June 28, 2007, and was the most rain ever recorded for the date. There were 6 days in the month with some sort of flood advisory, watch, or warning in the area, and there were also 4 severe thunderstorm days and one day with a wind advisory issued.
As for temperatures, our average high temperature for the month came in right at the average of 71.9 degrees. Low temperatures were a couple degrees above average at 50.9 degrees. Our warmest temperature in May was 84 degrees, reached on both May 22 and May 23. The coldest temperature for the month was 33 degrees on May 18, which set a record low for the date.
E-mail your weather questions to weather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Kevin Carter .
MAY 29, 2009: GETTING READY FOR HURRICANE SEASON
The first Tropical Depression of the 2009 Atlantic Tropical Storm season has formed. Tropical Depression #1 was located about 260 miles southeast of Nantucket, Massachusetts at 5 am this morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph but look for it to weaken as it moves over colder waters. So Tropical Depression # 1 will not become our first named tropical storm or hurricane but hurricane season is right around the corner as it begins June 1st and lasts through November 30th. Here is the list of names that will be used this year for tropical storms and / or hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean basin:
AnaEmail your weather questions toweather@wtov.com.
Bill
Claudette
Danny
Erika
Fred
Grace
Henri
Ida
Joaquin
Kate
Larry
Mindy
Nicholas
Odette
Peter
Rose
Sam
Teresa
Victor
Wanda
I'm meteorologist Jeff Oechslein.
MAY 27, 2009: A SLOW MOVING FRONT
A cold front slipped into our area Sunday night, triggering some heavy rains. Indeed, the Filtration Plant in Steubenville measured 1.95 inches of rain on Sunday, a record for the date, and the most rain they have recorded for any one day since June 28, 2007.
This front then stalled in the southern portion of our area on Memorial Day, and began to move back to the north as a warm front by Monday evening. This led to some interesting weather for our area, especially when it comes to dew points.
While warm fronts are named because they mark the leading edge of warm air moving into a cooler air mass, they also usually indicate the boundary between moist and dry air as well. Meteorologists measure the moisture content of an air mass with the dew point, which is the temperature to which air must be cooled until the water vapor in the air condenses into liquid water.
The warm front in our area on Monday night had a dramatic difference in dew points between its warm and cold sides. For example, the dew point on the south side of the front at the Allegheny County airport at 11pm Monday evening was 60 degrees, while on the other side of the front at the nearby Pittsburgh International Airport, the dew point was only 44 degrees. Ironically, the temperature at the Pittsburgh airport, on the “cool” side of the front was 72 degrees, while it was 71 degrees on the “warm” side of the front at the Allegheny County airport.The front moved north by midnight Tuesday morning, and the Pittsburgh airport’s dew point jumped to 59 degrees. Then the front slid back to the south, and Pittsburgh’s dew point fell back to 46 degrees by 4 am. The waffling continued back and forth on Tuesday as the warm front tried to move northeast, keeping our area divided into dry and moist air.
E-mail your weather questions to weather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Kevin Carter .
MAY 25, 2009: LIGHTS OUT?
Happy Memorial Day and since it is the unofficial start to summer then why is the topic of today’s blog entry “Lights Out”? Summer is just beginning and watching fireflies is an evening summer ritual for many, but some people are noticing fewer fireflies flickering in their backyards. Why might these “lightning bugs” be in decline?Lawn Care: Fireflies spend time on the ground during the day and may be susceptible to injury from lawnmowers. Scientists are gathering data to understand how fertilizers, weed killers and pesticides affect fireflies. Light: Fireflies find their mate by flashing – they need to see the flash of a mate and respond with a flash of their own. Scientists are also studying whether outdoor patio and street lights interfere with firefly mating.Water Sources: Firefly larvae live in the soil and need water to survive. Scientists are working to understand how important water supplies are to firefly survival.You can enjoy firefly watching on warm summer evenings and help scientists study fireflies! Scientists at the Museum of Science (Boston), Tufts University and Fitchburg State College are teaming up to track fireflies around the country and understand why some are disappearing. They want to know if you have fireflies in your backyard this summer. You can help them by spending ten minutes per week checking for fireflies and reporting what you find.Learn about Firefly Watch and sign up as a volunteer by visiting:Fire Fly Watch.Learn about different types of fireflies.Learn about firefly ranges and flash patterns.Email your weather questions toweather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Jeff Oechslein.
MAY 22, 2009: DON’T FRY DAY
To help reduce rising rates of skin cancer from overexposure to the ultraviolet rays of the sun, the National Council on Skin Cancer Prevention has designated the Friday before Memorial Day, May 22, 2009, as “Don’t Fry Day” to encourage sun safety awareness and to remind everyone to protect their skin while enjoying the outdoors. The action step the National Council on Skin Cancer Prevention is emphasizing for 2009 is “Slap on a Hat,” encouraging everyone to wear protective clothing like a wide-brimmed hat to provide important protection from too much sun.As warm weather approaches and millions of Americans prepare to enjoy the great outdoors, the risk for ultraviolet (UV) damage of the skin increases. Skin cancer is on the rise in the United States, and the American Cancer Society estimates that one American dies every hour from skin cancer. It is estimated that this year 62,480 cases of malignant melanoma, the most serious form of skin cancer, and more than one million cases of basal cell or squamous skin cancer will be diagnosed in the U.S.Fortunately, skin cancer is highly curable if detected in its early stages. An easy way to remember sun safety awareness is to Slip! Slop! Slap!...and Wrap — slip on a shirt, slop on sunscreen of SPF 15 or higher, slap on a hat, and wrap on sunglasses. The best way to detect skin cancer early is to examine your skin regularly and recognize changes in moles and skin growths.Most skin cancers are caused by overexposure to UV radiation. A tanned appearance has become a sign of a good look and good health, fueling the increasing trends of sunbathing and tanning beds among young adults and women. However, using a sunless self-tanning product and continuing to apply sunscreen can help greatly reduce skin cancer risk. Individuals with lighter-toned skin are more susceptible to UV damage, although people of all races and ethnicities can be at risk for skin cancer. Those who have a family history of skin cancer, plenty of moles or freckles, or a history of severe sunburns early in life are at a higher risk of skin cancer as well. To minimize the harmful effects of excessive and unprotected sun exposure, protection from intense UV radiation should be a life-long practice for everyone.The National Council on Skin Cancer Prevention is the united voice of 45 groups dedicated to reducing skin cancer morbidity and mortality in the United States. Council members represent some of the nation’s premier researchers, clinicians and advocates for melanoma and skin cancer prevention.Email your weather questions toweather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Jeff Oechslein.
MAY 21, 2009: LET’S BE PERFECTLY CLEAR
I don’t use the words sunny or clear very often in my forecasts. I usually opt for mostly clear at night and mostly sunny during the day. There’s a good reason for that. Those perfectly clear skies are hard to come by, and usually don’t last all day or all night.
Even though I forecasted clear skies for Tuesday night and a sunny day for Wednesday, there were some clouds around. The National Weather Service office in Pittsburgh scans the skies every hour, and reports the results. They spotted clouds between 6 am through 10 am Wednesday morning, and again from noon through 2 pm in the afternoon.
In fact, I went back through the National Weather Service office online climate records, hour by hour, to see when the last completely clear 24 hour day occurred. I had to go all the way back to October 10, 2008 to find one! So, even though the data says Pittsburgh averages 59 clear days a year, I think this really means days that are mostly sunny by day and mostly clear at night, and not ones that are completely cloud free. Those perfectly clear days are hard to find in our area!
E-mail your weather questions to weather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Kevin Carter .
MAY 18, 2009: FOUR HURRICANE NAMES RETIRED FROM LIST
Three hurricane names in the Atlantic and one in the eastern North Pacific were retired from the official name rotation by the World Meteorological Organization’s hurricane committee because of the deaths and damage they caused in 2008.The names Gustav, Ike and Paloma in the Atlantic and Alma in the North Pacific will not be used again. Those names would have been used again in 2014. In their place will be Gonzalo, Isaias and Paulette in the Atlantic and Amanda in the North Pacific. The committee issues the list of potential names for tropical cyclones to be used every six years for both the Atlantic basin and eastern North Pacific basin.Email your weather questions toweather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Jeff Oechslein.
MAY 16, 2009: THE POSITIVE AND NEGATIVE SIDE OF LIGHTNING
The establishment of a nationwide lightning detection network in the early 1990s enabled researchers to count lightning bolts accurately, and the numbers are stunning. The United States takes an average of 22 million lightning ground strikes per year. Of those, 90-95 percent are termed "negative," meaning the flow of electric current is from the cloud to the ground, and 5-10 percent are "positive," current flowing from ground.However, despite a significantly lower rate of occurrence, positive lightning is particularly dangerous for several reasons. Since it originates in the upper levels of a storm, the amount of air it must burn through to reach the ground usually much greater. Therefore, its electric field typically is much stronger than a negative strike. Its flash duration is longer, and its peak charge and potential can be ten times greater than a negative strike; as much as 300,000 amperes and one billion volts!Some positive strikes can occur within the parent thunderstorm and strike the ground beneath the cloud. However, many positive strikes occur near the edge of the cloud or strike more than 10 miles away, where you may not perceive any risk nor hear any thunder.Also, positive flashes are believed to be responsible for a large percentage of forest fires and power line damage. Thus, positive lightning is much more lethal and causes greater damage than negative lightning.Email your weather questions toweather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Jeff Oechslein.
MAY 15, 2009: RAIN ABOUT ON SCHEDULE
We’ve had our share of rain this month, but nothing out of the ordinary. Through the first fourteen days of May, we’ve had 1.68 inches of rain, just 0.13 inches above average. The year to date precipitation stands at 10.76 inches of rain and melted snow, which is 2.28 inches shy of normal.
While it really hasn’t been terribly wet this month, we’ve only had two days with no precipitation at all. Five days have had just a trace of rain, two others a paltry 0.01 inches, and one more checked in at 0.02 inches. That means only four days in these first two weeks of May have really had any significant rain. We had a tenth of an inch on May 11, 0.13 inches on May 8, 0.53 inches on the first of the month, and 0.88 inches on May 6.
We are in our wet time of year. In a typical May, we receive 3.59 inches of rain, our third wettest month on average. Our wettest month on average is July, with 3.75 inches of rain, followed by June at 3.71 inches. March comes in fourth at 3.41 inches, with August fifth at 3.21 inches and April sixth with 3.15 inches.
E-mail your weather questions to weather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Kevin Carter .
MAY 12, 2009: LATE FROST
If it’s frost you want, then 36 degrees is the magic number. That may not make any sense at first, but as we blogged back on October 3, 2008, frost can form on the earth’s surface when the official temperature, taken about six feet above the ground, hits 36 degrees or colder.
So, since temperatures early Tuesday morning are expected to fall to around 36 degrees, frost is a distinct possibility, especially north of Interstate 70 where the National Weather Service has issued a frost advisory. This is getting to be a bit late for frost, but is really not out of the ordinary.
I reviewed the last ten years of weather data, and found that our last 36 degree reading in the spring has occurred in April five times and in May five times. The last two years were early, April 16 in 2008 and April 21 in 2007. The three previous years were late, all coming in May: May 23 in 2006, May 5 in 2005, and May 4 in 2004.
Then it was back and forth the previous five years; April 27 in 2003, May 22 in 2002, May 13 in 2001, April 28 in 2000, and April 26 in 1999. As the last ten years show, planting your garden too early can lead to some extra work covering those tender young plants in May about every other year. But at least we haven’t seen a frost as last as in 1972, when the temperature fell to a frosty 34 degrees on June 11!
E-mail your weather questions to weather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Kevin Carter .
MAY 7, 2009: VORTEX2 IS ABOUT TO START
VORTEX2 will hit the road from 10 May - 13 June 2009 and 1 May - 15 June 2010. What is VORTEX2? VORTEX2 is by far the largest and most ambitious effort ever made to understand tornadoes. They expect over 100 scientists and crew in up to 40 science and support vehicles to participate in this unique, fully nomadic, field program in May/June 2009-2010. The National Science Foundation (NSF) foundation and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Adminstration (NOAA) together are contributing over $10 million towards this effort. Participants will be drawn from several universities, and several government and private organizations, and will be international including members from Italy, Netherlands, United Kingdom, Canada and Australia.The results of this study will help answer some very difficult questions such as:- How, when, and why do tornadoes form? Why some are violent and long lasting while others are weak and short lived?- What is the structure of tornadoes? How strong are the winds near the ground? How exactly do they do damage?- How can we learn to forecast tornadoes better? Current warnings have an only 13 minute average lead time and a 70% false alarm rate. Can we make warnings more accurate? Can we warn 30, 45, 60 minutes ahead?VORTEX2 is fully nomadic with no home base. Scientists will roam from state to state following severe weather outbreaks through the Plains.You can track the findings of this project by visiting the VORTEX2 web site.Email your weather questions toweather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Jeff Oechslein.
MAY 6, 2009: EARLY HEAT
Remember those warm days last month? You know, when it seemed like summer, even though the calendar still said April? We had high temperatures of 80 degrees or above five days in a row from April 24 through April 28, including a record high of 87 degrees on April 25.
The last time we had five days in a row at or above 80 degrees was back at the start of September of last year. The highs for September 1 through September 5 were 85, 88, 88, 88, and 86. The first time we had five in a row that warm last year came in June. We actually went 9 days in a row with temperatures at or above 80 degrees from June 5 through June 13, including our only 90 degree days of last year on the 6th, 7th, and 9th.
Going back through the years, we find that our first five day or longer stretch of 80 degree days usually shows up in May or June. In 2007 it came on May 8 through May 12, and in 2006 it was May 27 through May 31. We had to wait until June 5 through June 14 in 2005, and then it was back to May 8 through May 14 in 2004. We really had to wait for the heat in 2003, when the first five days of 80 degree temperatures came on June 22 through June 26.
But then we come to 2002, and how soon we forget the past. That year our first five days of 80 degree or higher temperatures actually came sooner than this year by 9 days. We hit 81 on April 15, 2002, followed by a record high of 87 on the 16th. Highs of 85 on both the 17th and 18th and 84 on April 19 completed the streak.
E-mail your weather questions to weather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Kevin Carter .
MAY 2, 2009: DO RAINBOWS ONLY APPEAR WHEN ITS WARM?
Rainbows can appear in the sky at any time of the year because temperatures are not involved in their formation. Unfortunately, the sky conditions that are necessary to produce rainbows rarely occur during the coldest part of the year, and so we almost never see them in the period from November through February.A rainbow can form only when bright sunlight shines directly on raindrops and the observer is in the proper place to see it. But in the winter, the usual situation when it is raining is a gray, gloomy and solidly overcast sky with no direct sunlight. Breaks in the clouds that let sunlight shine directly onto raindrops usually occur only with showery rain such as thunderstorms, which are mainly warm-season weather events.Email your weather questions toweather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Jeff Oechslein.
MAY 1, 2009: APRIL SUMMARY
April started and ended with showers, but it had a little of everything else in between. We managed a record high, a record snowy day, and a couple of days with the threat of severe thunderstorms.
The average high temperature for the month was 62.7 degrees, about a half degree above average. This was helped by that record high of 87 degrees on April 25, which came during a five day stretch of days with high temperatures at 80 degrees or above. The average low came in at 41.4 degrees, about 2 degrees above average.
Precipitation was just a shade above average, with 3.19 inches recorded, compared to the average of 3.15 inches. The wettest day was April 20, when 0.79 inches of rain fell. We had snow on four days in April, but the only day when more than a trace fell was April 7, when we picked up a record 1.6 inches. That was enough snow to put us above the monthly average of 1.5 inches. Assuming we don’t pick up any more snow this season, we end up at 31.9 inches, well below our seasonal snow average of 40.6 inches.
Severe weather was hard to find this April, but we did have the far southern part of the area under a severe thunderstorm watch on April 5, and severe thunderstorm warnings were issued on April 24.
E-mail your weather questions to weather@wtov.com.
I'm meteorologist Kevin Carter .
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